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Ecuador vs Costa Rica prediction

International · International friendlies

EcuadorLWWDD

19:00Fri Nov 13

Costa RicaWWLLL

44%26%30%

Probabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo

Friday, November 13 · 19:00 (Peru time)

🎯 Model pick

Ecuador to score

79%

Partial data

Ecuador scored in 4 of 5 matches this season
Ecuador average 1.4 goals per match
Costa Rica concede 3.3 goals per match

⚡ Summary

44%Ecuador to win@2.29 55%Over 2.5 goals@1.81 59%Both teams to score@1.70 1-1Most likely score · 12%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

📝 Preview

Ecuador and Costa Rica meet in the International friendlies.

The PickMania model gives Ecuador a 44% chance of winning, 26% for the draw and 30% for Costa Rica.

2.9 total goals are expected (1.6 from Ecuador and 1.3 from Costa Rica): over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance and both teams to score 59%.

The most likely score is 1-1.

Probabilities

44%Ecuador to win@2.29

26%Draw@3.78

30%Costa Rica to win@3.34

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Ecuador or draw70%

Costa Rica or draw56%

Ecuador to score79%

Costa Rica to score72%

Most likely scores

1-112%2-19%1-08%1-27%0-07%

Expected goals per the model: Ecuador 1.62 · Costa Rica 1.31

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.93.

Corners, cards and first half

⏱️ First half

42% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.23

71%Goal in the 1st half@1.41

35%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.87

82%Goal in the 2st half@1.22

⚽ Goals per team

48%Ecuador +1.5@2.08

38%Costa Rica +1.5@2.65

21%Ecuador to win to nil@4.82

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Goals in the last 10 matches

Ecuador · last 7 matches

3/7+2.5 goals3/7both teams to score2.1goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Costa Rica · last 8 matches

6/8+2.5 goals3/8both teams to score3.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

EcuadorCosta Rica

1.4Goals scored per match0.8

1.2Goals conceded per match3.3

100%Matches with over 1.5 goals100%

60%Matches with over 2.5 goals100%

60%Both teams to score50%

20%Clean sheet0%

20%Matches without scoring50%

4.8Corners won per match1.5

2.2Yellow cards per match2.5

Ecuador: 5 matches · Costa Rica: 4 matches (all competitions with data).

Ecuador at home · Costa Rica away

Ecuador at home

2G0E0P

WWW

Costa Rica away

0G1E2P

WLLLD

When do they score and concede?

Ecuador · goals by minute in 5 matches scored conceded

Costa Rica · goals by minute in 4 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Ecuador

Scores first in 3 of 5 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 2 and avoids defeat in 1.

Costa Rica

Scores first in 0 of 4 matches and wins 0 of them.

Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

Ecuador

John Yeboah · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

E. Valencia · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches

Nilson Angulo · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

Costa Rica

C. Mora · 4 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

O. Sinclair · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

R. Matarrita · 0 goles, 2 assists in 1 matches

Head to head

2Ecuador to win

0Draws

0Costa Rica to win

2 matches · 4.0 goals per match

Recent meetings
2023-06-21	Costa Rica 1-3 Ecuador	Friendlies
2023-06-21	Ecuador 3-1 Costa Rica	Friendlies

More stats

Half-time

Ecuador: 50 days since last match · Costa Rica: 40 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.