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Derby vs Bolton prediction
England · Championship
Derby
BoltonPre-match probabilities
Friday, November 6 · 15:00 (Peru time) · Pride Park Stadium · Referee: James Bell
Bolton to score
79%- Bolton scored in 10 of 14 matches this season
- Bolton average 1.4 goals per match
- Derby concede 2.1 goals per match
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Derby 1.32 · Bolton 1.56
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.88.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 10.8 in total · Derby 5.5 · Bolton 5.3
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 4.1 · el árbitro James Bell saca 4.2 por partido
⏱️ First half
53% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.53
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Derby: 14 matches · Bolton: 14 matches (all competitions with data).
Derby at home · Bolton away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 5 of 14 matches and wins 1 of them.
Concedes first in 9 and avoids defeat in 2.
Scores first in 5 of 12 matches and wins 4 of them.
Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 1.
Players in form
L. Salvesen · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
Filip Bilbija · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches
B. Clark · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches
Sam Dalby · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Josh Sheehan · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Atsuki Ito · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 2.3 goals per match
| 2024-03-16 | Derby 1-0 Bolton | League One |
| 2023-09-02 | Bolton 2-1 Derby | League One |
| 2023-01-21 | Derby 2-1 Bolton | League One |
| 2022-12-27 | Bolton 0-0 Derby | League One |
| 2019-04-13 | Derby 4-0 Bolton | Championship |
| 2018-09-29 | Bolton 1-0 Derby | Championship |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | +6 | 29 |
| 4 | Wolves | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 5 | West Brom | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 6 | Swansea | 15 | +4 | 26 |
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | +14 | 23 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | +8 | 21 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | -8 | 18 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | -9 | 17 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | -10 | 17 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | -9 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | -16 | 10 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | -17 | 8 |
More stats
14 matches · 4.0 yellows and 0.20 reds per match · 0.20 penalties
Derby: 3 days since last match · Bolton: 3 days
P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, J. Ward
E. Erhahon, R. Hardie, J. McAtee, J. Nelson, E. Toal, G. Bazunu
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 22:30 UTC.