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Deportivo Pasto vs Junior prediction
Colombia · Primera A
Deportivo Pasto
JuniorProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Thursday, November 12 · 17:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Departamental Libertad
Junior or draw
75%- Junior unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 (W L D W D)
- Deportivo Pasto in poor form: 3 defeats in their last 5
- Head to head: 4W 3D 3L for Junior
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
📝 Preview
Deportivo Pasto and Junior meet in the Primera A.
The PickMania model gives Deportivo Pasto a 25% chance of winning, 34% for the draw and 41% for Junior.
2.4 total goals are expected (1.1 from Deportivo Pasto and 1.3 from Junior): over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance and both teams to score 51%.
The most likely score is 1-1.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Deportivo Pasto 1.05 · Junior 1.33
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.38.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 8.8 in total · Deportivo Pasto 4.7 · Junior 4.1
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 6.3
⏱️ First half
48% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.14
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Deportivo Pasto: 39 matches · Junior: 49 matches (all competitions with data).
Deportivo Pasto at home · Junior away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 16 of 34 matches and wins 11 of them.
Concedes first in 18 and avoids defeat in 3.
Scores first in 24 of 45 matches and wins 16 of them.
Concedes first in 21 and avoids defeat in 5.
Players in form
E. C. Serje Orozco · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
J. Mendez · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
H. Mancilla · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
G. Paiva · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
T. Gutierrez · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches
J. Rivas · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 2.7 goals per match
| 2026-05-03 | Junior 4-3 Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| 2025-09-29 | Junior 2-0 Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| 2025-04-12 | Deportivo Pasto 3-3 Junior | Primera A |
| 2024-08-29 | Deportivo Pasto 1-0 Junior | Primera A |
| 2024-02-08 | Junior 2-0 Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| 2023-08-13 | Junior 0-0 Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | +7 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | +4 | 34 |
| 4 | América de Cali | 19 | +10 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | +9 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | +10 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | +7 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | +4 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | +8 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | +2 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | +6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | -17 | 10 |
More stats
Deportivo Pasto: 4 days since last match · Junior: 2 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.