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Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos prediction
Peru · Liga 1
Deportivo Garcilaso
Comerciantes UnidosPre-match probabilities
Sunday, November 8 · 18:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega · Referee: Julio Cesar Quiroz
Deportivo Garcilaso to score
81%- Deportivo Garcilaso scored in 24 of 33 matches this season
- Deportivo Garcilaso average 1.5 goals per match
- Comerciantes Unidos concede 1.5 goals per match
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Deportivo Garcilaso 1.69 · Comerciantes Unidos 0.94
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.63.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 8.9 in total · Deportivo Garcilaso 4.5 · Comerciantes Unidos 4.4
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 5.2 · el árbitro Julio Cesar Quiroz saca 5.9 por partido
⏱️ First half
40% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.05
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Deportivo Garcilaso: 33 matches · Comerciantes Unidos: 32 matches (all competitions with data).
Deportivo Garcilaso at home · Comerciantes Unidos away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 18 of 27 matches and wins 15 of them.
Concedes first in 9 and avoids defeat in 0.
Scores first in 9 of 27 matches and wins 5 of them.
Concedes first in 18 and avoids defeat in 9.
Players in form
Facundo Castelli · 4 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches
Agustin Gonzalez · 2 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches
Christopher Olivares · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Matías Eric Sen · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Rodrigo Vilca · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
J. Herrera · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
5 matches · 1.8 goals per match
| 2026-05-25 | Comerciantes Unidos 0-0 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| 2025-07-27 | Comerciantes Unidos 0-0 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| 2025-02-16 | Deportivo Garcilaso 2-1 Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
| 2024-08-25 | Comerciantes Unidos 2-1 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| 2024-03-28 | Deportivo Garcilaso 1-2 Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 33 | +30 | 69 |
| 2 | Universitario | 33 | +20 | 61 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 33 | +18 | 57 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 33 | +15 | 55 |
| 5 | Sporting Cristal | 33 | +15 | 51 |
| 6 | Cusco | 33 | -1 | 51 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 33 | +8 | 50 |
| 8 | Sport Huancayo | 33 | -1 | 50 |
| 9 | Alianza Atlético | 33 | +1 | 49 |
| 10 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 33 | -12 | 48 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 33 | +2 | 46 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 33 | -11 | 41 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 33 | -3 | 37 |
| 14 | Atlético Grau | 33 | -9 | 37 |
| 15 | ADT | 33 | -12 | 32 |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 33 | -19 | 31 |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 33 | -21 | 30 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 33 | -20 | 19 |
More stats
29 matches · 5.3 yellows and 0.63 reds per match · 0.88 penalties
Deportivo Garcilaso: 6 days since last match · Comerciantes Unidos: 5 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-09 01:30 UTC.