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Deportivo Cuenca vs Orense SC prediction

Ecuador · Liga Pro

Deportivo Cuenca#12 · 36 ptsLWWDD

2 - 0Full time

Orense SC#13 · 33 ptsDWDDL

32%38%30%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Cristhian Benalcazar 37'⚽ David Gonzalez 49'🟥 J. Valencia 82'

Sunday, November 8 · 11:30 (Peru time) · Alejandro Serrano Aguilar · Referee: Bryan Loayza

🎯 Model pick

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

70%

Full data

Deportivo Cuenca unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 (L W W D D)
At home, Deportivo Cuenca are 8W 7D 6L this season

⚡ Summary

38%Draw@2.66 33%Over 2.5 goals@3.06 44%Both teams to score@2.29 42%Corners +9.5 (9.1)@2.3840%Cards +4.5 (4.2)@2.480-0Most likely score · 17%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

84'🔁 Sub: Cristhian Benalcazar · Matías KlimowiczDeportivo Cuenca

84'🔁 Sub: Melvin Diaz · Romario IbarraDeportivo Cuenca

82'🟥 J. ValenciaOrense SC

77'🔁 Sub: David Gonzalez · Jeremy MejíaDeportivo Cuenca

74'🟨 J. ValenciaOrense SC

70'🟨 Andrés ParralesOrense SC

66'🔁 Sub: B. Quiñonez · J. ValenciaOrense SC

66'🔁 Sub: Michael Alessandro Bermúdez Reyes · Andrés ParralesOrense SC

63'🔁 Sub: Lucas Mancinelli · Marcos Andres LopezDeportivo Cuenca

59'🟨 Melvin DiazDeportivo Cuenca

53'🟨 Mateo MaccariDeportivo Cuenca

49'⚽ David Gonzalez assist Cristhian BenalcazarDeportivo Cuenca

45'+8❌ Ángel Mena (missed pen.)Orense SC

45'🔁 Sub: Ángel Mena · Valentín BurgoaOrense SC

45'🔁 Sub: Gonzalo Rostagno · Christian Alejandro Ortíz CalleOrense SC

45'🔁 Sub: marlon quinonez · Alan Gastón LorenzoOrense SC

37'⚽ Cristhian BenalcazarDeportivo Cuenca

22'🟨 Sixto MinaOrense SC

Win probability minute by minute

Deportivo CuencaDrawOrense SC

At kick-off32%38%30%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

32%Deportivo Cuenca to win@3.12

38%Draw@2.66

30%Orense SC to win@3.29

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals33%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score44%

Deportivo Cuenca or draw70%

Orense SC or draw68%

Deportivo Cuenca to score64%

Orense SC to score63%

Most likely scores

0-017%1-116%1-011%0-111%2-16%

Expected goals per the model: Deportivo Cuenca 1.03 · Orense SC 1.00

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.03.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.1 in total · Deportivo Cuenca 4.6 · Orense SC 4.5

52%Over 8.5@1.91

42%Over 9.5@2.38

33%Over 10.5@3.07

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.2 · el árbitro Bryan Loayza saca 3.9 por partido

57%Over 3.5@1.75

40%Over 4.5@2.48

26%Over 5.5@3.79

⏱️ First half

44% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 0.89

59%Goal in the 1st half@1.69

22%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@4.45

68%Goal in the 2st half@1.47

⚽ Goals per team

28%Deportivo Cuenca +1.5@3.63

26%Orense SC +1.5@3.78

21%Deportivo Cuenca to win to nil@4.85

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

0.85Expected goals (xG)0.91

7Shots on target1

1Saves5

1Offsides0

14Shots5

2Yellow cards2

3Corners3

0Red cards1

13Fouls13

48Possession %52

Goals in the last 10 matches

Deportivo Cuenca · last 10 matches

3/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.1goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Orense SC · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score2.7goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Deportivo CuencaOrense SC

0.9Goals scored per match1.2

1.2Goals conceded per match1.4

62%Matches with over 1.5 goals83%

33%Matches with over 2.5 goals56%

40%Both teams to score61%

33%Clean sheet19%

36%Matches without scoring28%

4.8Corners won per match4.6

1.9Yellow cards per match2.3

Deportivo Cuenca: 42 matches · Orense SC: 36 matches (all competitions with data).

Deportivo Cuenca at home · Orense SC away

Deportivo Cuenca at home

8G7E6P

WDLWD

Orense SC away

3G4E10P

DLLLL

When do they score and concede?

Deportivo Cuenca · goals by minute in 42 matches scored conceded

Orense SC · goals by minute in 36 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Deportivo Cuenca

Scores first in 22 of 38 matches and wins 14 of them.

Concedes first in 16 and avoids defeat in 3.

Orense SC

Scores first in 14 of 33 matches and wins 9 of them.

Concedes first in 19 and avoids defeat in 4.

Players in form

Deportivo Cuenca

Lucas Mancinelli · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

Eddie Guevara · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

Jeremy Mejía · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Orense SC

W. Herrera · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Andrés Parrales · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

Ángel Mena · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

Head to head

1Deportivo Cuenca to win

3Draws

6Orense SC to win

10 matches · 1.8 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-10-11	Orense SC 0-0 Deportivo Cuenca	Liga Pro
2026-08-16	Orense SC 2-0 Deportivo Cuenca	Liga Pro
2026-04-22	Deportivo Cuenca 1-3 Orense SC	Liga Pro
2025-08-31	Deportivo Cuenca 1-1 Orense SC	Liga Pro
2025-05-10	Orense SC 1-0 Deportivo Cuenca	Liga Pro
2024-08-10	Deportivo Cuenca 1-2 Orense SC	Liga Pro

Standings

Liga Pro standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	30	+40	74
2	Universidad Catolica	30	+24	51
3	Macara	30	+8	51
4	Aucas	30	+5	50
5	LDU de Quito	30	+7	46
6	Barcelona SC	30	+7	44
7	Libertad	30	-1	41
8	Leones del Norte	30	-1	39
9	Guayaquil City FC	30	-3	39
10	Emelec	30	-9	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	30	-3	38
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	-12	36
13	Orense SC	30	-11	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	30	-14	32
15	Delfin SC	30	-12	28
16	Manta FC	30	-25	21

More stats

Referee: Bryan Loayza

15 matches · 3.6 yellows and 0.33 reds per match · 0.11 penalties

Half-time

Deportivo Cuenca: 8 days since last match · Orense SC: 5 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 19:00 UTC.