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Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima prediction

Colombia · Primera A

Deportivo Cali#9 · 27 ptsDWDWD

15:30Sat Nov 14

Deportes Tolima#6 · 31 ptsWWLLL

43%30%27%

Probability of each result according to the model

Saturday, November 14 · 15:30 (Peru time) · Estadio Deportivo Cali

🎯 Model pick

Deportivo Cali or draw

73%

Full data

Deportivo Cali unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 (D W D W D)
At home, Deportivo Cali are 10W 7D 1L this season
Deportes Tolima in poor form: 3 defeats in their last 5

⚡ Summary

43%Deportivo Cali to win@2.32 41%Over 2.5 goals@2.47 50%Both teams to score@2.01 41%Corners +9.5 (9.0)@2.4663%Cards +4.5 (5.7)@1.591-1Most likely score · 14%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

📝 Preview

Deportivo Cali and Deportes Tolima meet in the Primera A.

The PickMania model gives Deportivo Cali a 43% chance of winning, 30% for the draw and 27% for Deportes Tolima.

2.3 total goals are expected (1.3 from Deportivo Cali and 1.0 from Deportes Tolima): over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance and both teams to score 50%.

The most likely score is 1-1.

Probabilities

43%Deportivo Cali to win@2.32

30%Draw@3.30

27%Deportes Tolima to win@3.76

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score50%

Deportivo Cali or draw73%

Deportes Tolima or draw57%

Deportivo Cali to score73%

Deportes Tolima to score62%

Most likely scores

1-114%1-012%0-012%0-19%2-08%

Expected goals per the model: Deportivo Cali 1.33 · Deportes Tolima 0.99

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.32.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.0 in total · Deportivo Cali 4.2 · Deportes Tolima 4.8

51%Over 8.5@1.96

41%Over 9.5@2.46

31%Over 10.5@3.19

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 5.7

77%Over 3.5@1.29

63%Over 4.5@1.59

48%Over 5.5@2.08

⏱️ First half

41% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 0.95

61%Goal in the 1st half@1.63

25%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@4.06

75%Goal in the 2st half@1.34

⚽ Goals per team

38%Deportivo Cali +1.5@2.61

26%Deportes Tolima +1.5@3.84

26%Deportivo Cali to win to nil@3.84

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Goals in the last 10 matches

Deportivo Cali · last 10 matches

3/10+2.5 goals2/10both teams to score1.7goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Deportes Tolima · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score2.3goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Deportivo CaliDeportes Tolima

1.2Goals scored per match1.2

0.7Goals conceded per match1.0

65%Matches with over 1.5 goals64%

30%Matches with over 2.5 goals43%

41%Both teams to score45%

46%Clean sheet34%

27%Matches without scoring34%

4.3Corners won per match5.1

2.7Yellow cards per match2.6

Deportivo Cali: 37 matches · Deportes Tolima: 53 matches (all competitions with data).

Deportivo Cali at home · Deportes Tolima away

Deportivo Cali at home

10G7E1P

WDWWW

Deportes Tolima away

6G8E12P

WLLDD

When do they score and concede?

Deportivo Cali · goals by minute in 35 matches scored conceded

Deportes Tolima · goals by minute in 50 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Deportivo Cali

Scores first in 20 of 30 matches and wins 14 of them.

Concedes first in 10 and avoids defeat in 4.

Deportes Tolima

Scores first in 21 of 43 matches and wins 15 of them.

Concedes first in 22 and avoids defeat in 5.

Players in form

Deportivo Cali

N. Benedetti · 2 goals, 0 assists in 4 matches

J. Martinez · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

C. Bacca · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Deportes Tolima

A. Parra Osorio · 3 goals, 1 assists in 5 matches

E. Valencia · 2 goals, 1 assists in 5 matches

L. Sanchez · 2 goals, 0 assists in 2 matches

Head to head

2Deportivo Cali to win

3Draws

5Deportes Tolima to win

10 matches · 2.7 goals per match

Recent meetings
Fecha	Local		Visitante	Competition
03-05-2026	Deportes Tolima	1-1	Deportivo Cali	Primera A
25-10-2025	Deportes Tolima	2-1	Deportivo Cali	Primera A
03-05-2025	Deportivo Cali	1-1	Deportes Tolima	Primera A
08-09-2024	Deportes Tolima	1-1	Deportivo Cali	Primera A
26-02-2024	Deportivo Cali	1-2	Deportes Tolima	Primera A
29-11-2023	Deportivo Cali	0-2	Deportes Tolima	Primera A

Standings · Apertura

Deportes Tolima es 6.º con 31 pts y Deportivo Cali 9.º con 27: 4 puntos de diferencia.

Primera A standings
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts	Form
1	Atlético Nacional	19	13	1	5	35:15	+20	40	WWWDW
2	Junior	19	11	2	6	31:24	+7	35	DWDLW
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	29:25	+4	34	LWLWL
4	América de Cali	19	10	3	6	25:15	+10	33	DWWDD
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	31:22	+9	33	WDDWW
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	27:17	+10	31	LLLWW
7	Santa Fe	19	7	8	4	29:22	+7	29	WWLLW
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	7	7	5	26:26	0	28	DWLWL
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	20:16	+4	27	DWDWD
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	31:23	+8	26	DWDDL
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26:24	+2	26	LLLWW
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	20:25	-5	26	WLWWL
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	26:20	+6	23	LLWDW
14	Llaneros	19	4	10	5	17:20	-3	22	WLLWW
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	22:27	-5	22	LDLLL
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	20:33	-13	18	LWLLL
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	13:27	-14	17	WWLLL
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	15:32	-17	17	LWDLW
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	22:35	-13	16	WLLWL
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	15:32	-17	10	WDWLL