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Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios prediction

Colombia · Primera A

Deportes Tolima#6 · 31 ptsWLLLD

2 - 1Full time

Millonarios#10 · 26 ptsDDWDD

32%34%34%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ J. Cuadrado 8'⚽ E. Valencia 25' (p)⚽ K. Florez 36'🟥 S. Aguayo 90'

Sunday, November 8 · 18:10 (Peru time) · Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro · Referee: Edwin Ferney Trujillo Castro

🎯 Model pick

Millonarios to score

69%

Full data

Millonarios scored in 35 of 43 matches this season
Millonarios average 1.5 goals per match
Deportes Tolima in poor form: 3 defeats in their last 5

⚡ Summary

34%Draw@2.92 41%Over 2.5 goals@2.47 50%Both teams to score@2.00 45%Corners +9.5 (9.4)@2.2164%Cards +4.5 (5.7)@1.561-1Most likely score · 16%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+5🟥 S. AguayoDeportes Tolima

90'+1🔁 Sub: S. Vega · Leonai SouzaMillonarios

86'🔁 Sub: J. Cuadrado · D. QuinteroMillonarios

82'🟨 L. SandovalDeportes Tolima

80'🔁 Sub: J. Hurtado · E. LopezDeportes Tolima

80'🔁 Sub: A. Parra Osorio · S. AguayoDeportes Tolima

75'🟨 J. MosqueraDeportes Tolima

72'📺 J. AnguloDeportes Tolima

65'🔁 Sub: B. Rovira · V. ReyesDeportes Tolima

56'🔁 Sub: H. E. Martinez Yepez · J. AnguloDeportes Tolima

56'🔁 Sub: E. Valencia · L. SandovalDeportes Tolima

46'🔁 Sub: M. Garcia · L. CastroMillonarios

46'🔁 Sub: D. Banguero · A. EstupinanMillonarios

46'🟨 K. FlorezDeportes Tolima

45'+3🟨 S. MosqueraMillonarios

45'+1🟨 J. HernandezDeportes Tolima

36'⚽ K. Florez assist H. E. Martinez YepezDeportes Tolima

29'🔁 Sub: D. Ruiz · F. ChaverraMillonarios

27'🟨 J. CuadradoMillonarios

25'⚽ E. Valencia (pen.)Deportes Tolima

18'🟨 S. VegaMillonarios

14'🟨 M. GarciaMillonarios

9'🟨 H. E. Martinez YepezDeportes Tolima

8'⚽ J. CuadradoMillonarios

Win probability minute by minute

Deportes TolimaDrawMillonarios

At kick-off32%34%34%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

32%Deportes Tolima to win@3.13

34%Draw@2.92

34%Millonarios to win@2.96

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score50%

Deportes Tolima or draw66%

Millonarios or draw68%

Deportes Tolima to score68%

Millonarios to score69%

Most likely scores

1-116%0-013%0-110%1-09%1-27%

Expected goals per the model: Deportes Tolima 1.15 · Millonarios 1.18

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.33.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.4 in total · Deportes Tolima 4.4 · Millonarios 5.0

56%Over 8.5@1.80

45%Over 9.5@2.21

36%Over 10.5@2.81

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 5.7

78%Over 3.5@1.28

64%Over 4.5@1.56

49%Over 5.5@2.03

⏱️ First half

41% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 0.94

61%Goal in the 1st half@1.64

24%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@4.10

75%Goal in the 2st half@1.33

⚽ Goals per team

32%Deportes Tolima +1.5@3.13

33%Millonarios +1.5@3.03

18%Deportes Tolima to win to nil@5.43

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

2Shots on target4

11Shots12

19Fouls13

3Corners3

2Offsides1

46Possession %54

5Yellow cards4

3Saves0

1.38Expected goals (xG)0.66

Goals in the last 10 matches

Deportes Tolima · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score2.3goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Millonarios · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals8/10both teams to score2.6goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Deportes TolimaMillonarios

1.2Goals scored per match1.5

1.0Goals conceded per match1.1

63%Matches with over 1.5 goals77%

42%Matches with over 2.5 goals47%

44%Both teams to score60%

35%Clean sheet33%

35%Matches without scoring19%

5.1Corners won per match5.9

2.6Yellow cards per match2.9

Deportes Tolima: 52 matches · Millonarios: 43 matches (all competitions with data).

Deportes Tolima at home · Millonarios away

Deportes Tolima at home

14G6E6P

LDDWD

Millonarios away

6G8E8P

DDDWD

When do they score and concede?

Deportes Tolima · goals by minute in 45 matches scored conceded

Millonarios · goals by minute in 36 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Deportes Tolima

Scores first in 20 of 40 matches and wins 14 of them.

Concedes first in 20 and avoids defeat in 4.

Millonarios

Scores first in 20 of 33 matches and wins 13 of them.

Concedes first in 13 and avoids defeat in 6.

Players in form

Deportes Tolima

A. Parra Osorio · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

L. Sanchez · 2 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches

E. Valencia · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Millonarios

L. Castro · 2 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

D. Ruiz · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

A. Estupinan · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

3Deportes Tolima to win

3Draws

4Millonarios to win

10 matches · 1.7 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-04-24	Millonarios 2-0 Deportes Tolima	Primera A
2025-08-17	Deportes Tolima 3-1 Millonarios	Primera A
2025-03-02	Millonarios 2-0 Deportes Tolima	Primera A
2024-08-03	Millonarios 1-0 Deportes Tolima	Primera A
2024-02-03	Deportes Tolima 2-0 Millonarios	Primera A
2023-08-08	Millonarios 1-0 Deportes Tolima	Primera A

Standings

Primera A standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Atlético Nacional	19	+20	40
2	Junior	19	+7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	+4	34
4	América de Cali	19	+10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	+9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	+10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	+7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	+4	27
10	Millonarios	19	+8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	+2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	+6	23
14	Llaneros	19	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	-14	17
18	Chico	19	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	-17	10

More stats

Half-time

Deportes Tolima: 5 days since last match · Millonarios: 3 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-09 01:40 UTC.