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Cruzeiro vs Bahia prediction

Brazil · Brasileirão

Cruzeiro#3 · 60 ptsWWWLW

3 - 2Full time

Bahia#6 · 53 ptsWDLWL

54%27%19%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ C. Olivera 32'⚽ Kaio Jorge 45'⚽ Bruno Rodrigues 69'⚽ Kaio Jorge 86'⚽ A. Veliz 90'

Thursday, November 5 · 19:30 (Peru time) · Governador Magalhães Pinto · Referee: Rafael Rodrigo Klein

🎯 Model pick

Over 1.5 goals

82%

Full data

2+ goals in 32 of 41 Cruzeiro matches
Also in 28 of 35 Bahia matches
Head to head: 2.8 goals per match

⚡ Summary

54%Cruzeiro to win@1.87 59%Over 2.5 goals@1.69 62%Both teams to score@1.60 63%Corners +9.5 (11.3)@1.5854%Cards +4.5 (5.1)@1.841-1Most likely score · 12%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+9🟨 Kaua MoraesCruzeiro

90'+5⚽ A. Veliz assist Luciano JubaBahia

87'🔁 Sub: Gerson · Lucas SilvaCruzeiro

86'⚽ Kaio Jorge assist L. RomeroCruzeiro

83'🔁 Sub: Kanu · R. GomezBahia

82'🔁 Sub: Fagner · Kaua MoraesCruzeiro

82'🔁 Sub: Bruno Rodrigues · Matheus HenriqueCruzeiro

82'🔁 Sub: K. Arroyo · MarquinhosCruzeiro

76'🟨 Jonathan JesusCruzeiro

70'🟨 Caio AlexandreBahia

70'🟨 Bruno RodriguesCruzeiro

69'⚽ Bruno Rodrigues assist K. ArroyoCruzeiro

65'🔁 Sub: Erick · Caio AlexandreBahia

65'🔁 Sub: Rodrigo · Michel AraujoBahia

65'🔁 Sub: Everton Ribeiro · Erick PulgaBahia

62'❌ Kaio Jorge (missed pen.)Cruzeiro

57'🔁 Sub: Nicolas Acevedo · Jean LucasBahia

45'+2⚽ Kaio Jorge assist K. ArroyoCruzeiro

32'⚽ C. Olivera assist RodrigoBahia

19'🟨 Nicolas AcevedoBahia

5'🔁 Sub: Fabricio Bruno · M. VinaCruzeiro

Win probability minute by minute

CruzeiroDrawBahia

At kick-off54%27%19%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

54%Cruzeiro to win@1.87

27%Draw@3.67

19%Bahia to win@5.21

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score62%

Cruzeiro or draw81%

Bahia or draw46%

Cruzeiro to score86%

Bahia to score69%

Most likely scores

1-112%2-19%2-08%1-08%2-26%

Expected goals per the model: Cruzeiro 1.99 · Bahia 1.17

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.16.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 11.3 in total · Cruzeiro 5.8 · Bahia 5.5

73%Over 8.5@1.38

63%Over 9.5@1.58

54%Over 10.5@1.86

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 5.1 · el árbitro R. Klein saca 4.7 por partido

70%Over 3.5@1.43

54%Over 4.5@1.84

39%Over 5.5@2.56

⏱️ First half

49% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.56

79%Goal in the 1st half@1.26

46%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.16

80%Goal in the 2st half@1.25

⚽ Goals per team

59%Cruzeiro +1.5@1.69

33%Bahia +1.5@3.06

25%Cruzeiro to win to nil@4.02

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

8Shots on target4

21Shots12

10Fouls9

5Corners7

45Possession %55

2Yellow cards2

3Saves5

3.25Expected goals (xG)0.64

Goals in the last 10 matches

Cruzeiro · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score3.5goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Bahia · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score3.3goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

CruzeiroBahia

1.5Goals scored per match1.4

1.3Goals conceded per match1.3

78%Matches with over 1.5 goals80%

59%Matches with over 2.5 goals51%

63%Both teams to score63%

29%Clean sheet26%

12%Matches without scoring17%

4.9Corners won per match6.0

2.7Yellow cards per match2.5

Cruzeiro: 41 matches · Bahia: 35 matches (all competitions with data).

Cruzeiro at home · Bahia away

Cruzeiro at home

11G5E4P

WWWWD

Bahia away

6G5E6P

DLLWW

When do they score and concede?

Cruzeiro · goals by minute in 27 matches scored conceded

Bahia · goals by minute in 22 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Cruzeiro

Scores first in 14 of 26 matches and wins 12 of them.

Concedes first in 12 and avoids defeat in 6.

Bahia

Scores first in 9 of 20 matches and wins 5 of them.

Concedes first in 11 and avoids defeat in 8.

Players in form

Cruzeiro

Kaio Jorge · 5 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Matheus Pereira · 0 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches

Ze Lucas · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Bahia

Luciano Juba · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Marcos Victor · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches

Rodrigo · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

5Cruzeiro to win

3Draws

2Bahia to win

10 matches · 2.8 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-05-10	Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro	Serie A
2025-09-15	Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro	Serie A
2025-04-18	Cruzeiro 3-0 Bahia	Serie A
2024-10-19	Cruzeiro 1-1 Bahia	Serie A
2024-06-23	Bahia 4-1 Cruzeiro	Serie A
2023-10-25	Cruzeiro 3-0 Bahia	Serie A

Standings

Brasileirão standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	34	+42	76
2	Palmeiras	34	+39	73
3	Cruzeiro	34	+7	60
4	Fluminense	34	+13	57
5	Atlético Paranaense	34	+8	54
6	Bahia	34	+5	53
7	Atlético-MG	34	+4	50
8	RB Bragantino	34	+5	47
9	Santos	34	+1	47
10	São Paulo	34	0	44
11	Botafogo	34	-7	42
12	Coritiba	34	-11	42
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	-7	41
14	Mirassol	34	-9	40
15	Vitoria	34	-16	38
16	International	34	-4	38
17	Corinthians	34	-6	37
18	Grêmio	34	-9	37
19	Remo	34	-20	29
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	-35	21

More stats

Referee: R. Klein

12 matches · 4.4 yellows and 0.29 reds per match · 0.00 penalties

Half-time

Cruzeiro: 7 days since last match · Bahia: 8 days

Cruzeiro absences

Felipe Morais, Gabriel Pec, Matheus Pereira, L. Sinisterra, L. Villalba, William Furtado, Joao Marcelo

Bahia absences

Leo Vieira

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC.