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Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima prediction

Peru · Liga 1

Club Deportivo Los Chankas#10 · 48 ptsDLLWD

1 - 1Full time

Alianza Lima#1 · 69 ptsWLWWW

18%30%52%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Erick Castillo 51'⚽ Kelvin Sanchez 59'

Sunday, November 8 · 13:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Los Chankas · Referee: Roberto Perez Gutierrez

🎯 Model pick

Alianza Lima to score

82%

Full data

Alianza Lima scored in 30 of 34 matches this season
Alianza Lima average 1.6 goals per match
Club Deportivo Los Chankas concede 1.6 goals per match

⚡ Summary

52%Alianza Lima to win@1.92 50%Over 2.5 goals@2.00 54%Both teams to score@1.84 35%Corners +9.5 (8.4)@2.8943%Cards +4.5 (4.4)@2.311-1Most likely score · 14%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+4📺 Abdiel AyarzaClub Deportivo Los Chankas

89'🔁 Sub: Jarlin Quintero · Oshiro TakeuchiClub Deportivo Los Chankas

82'🟨 Héctor GonzálezClub Deportivo Los Chankas

81'🟨 Jarlin QuinteroClub Deportivo Los Chankas

80'🔁 Sub: Fernando Gaibor · Alan Martín CanteroAlianza Lima

78'🔁 Sub: Marlon Torres · Kenji BarriosClub Deportivo Los Chankas

69'🔁 Sub: Federico Girotti · Luis RamosAlianza Lima

69'🔁 Sub: Erick Castillo · Kevin QuevedoAlianza Lima

59'⚽ Kelvin SanchezClub Deportivo Los Chankas

56'🔁 Sub: Christian Velarde · Axel ChávezClub Deportivo Los Chankas

56'🔁 Sub: Félix Espinoza · Abdiel AyarzaClub Deportivo Los Chankas

56'🔁 Sub: Brayan Guevara · Kelvin SanchezClub Deportivo Los Chankas

54'🟨 Nicolás DíazAlianza Lima

54'🔁 Sub: D'Alessandro Montenegro · Alessandro BurlamaquiAlianza Lima

51'⚽ Erick Castillo assist Fernando GaiborAlianza Lima

45'+2🟨 D'Alessandro MontenegroAlianza Lima

Win probability minute by minute

Club Deportivo Los ChankasDrawAlianza Lima

At kick-off18%30%52%Full time0%100%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

18%Club Deportivo Los Chankas to win@5.47

30%Draw@3.38

52%Alianza Lima to win@1.92

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score54%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw48%

Alianza Lima or draw82%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas to score63%

Alianza Lima to score82%

Most likely scores

1-114%0-110%0-29%0-09%1-29%

Expected goals per the model: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0.99 · Alianza Lima 1.74

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.73.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 8.4 in total · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3.3 · Alianza Lima 5.1

45%Over 8.5@2.24

35%Over 9.5@2.89

26%Over 10.5@3.86

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.4 · el árbitro Roberto Perez Gutierrez saca 4.4 por partido

60%Over 3.5@1.67

43%Over 4.5@2.31

29%Over 5.5@3.46

⏱️ First half

49% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.33

74%Goal in the 1st half@1.36

38%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.61

75%Goal in the 2st half@1.33

⚽ Goals per team

26%Club Deportivo Los Chankas +1.5@3.84

52%Alianza Lima +1.5@1.93

9%Club Deportivo Los Chankas to win to nil@11.09

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

1.65Expected goals (xG)0.92

6Shots on target4

3Saves3

2Offsides1

19Shots8

2Yellow cards2

5Corners2

11Fouls15

0Red cards0

65Possession %35

Goals in the last 10 matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score2.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Alianza Lima · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score2.4goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Club Deportivo Los ChankasAlianza Lima

1.2Goals scored per match1.6

1.6Goals conceded per match0.7

72%Matches with over 1.5 goals65%

53%Matches with over 2.5 goals38%

53%Both teams to score53%

25%Clean sheet38%

28%Matches without scoring12%

4.1Corners won per match5.0

2.0Yellow cards per match1.9

Club Deportivo Los Chankas: 32 matches · Alianza Lima: 34 matches (all competitions with data).

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home · Alianza Lima away

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home

10G1E5P

LWLLL

Alianza Lima away

7G7E3P

LWWDD

When do they score and concede?

Club Deportivo Los Chankas · goals by minute in 29 matches scored conceded

Alianza Lima · goals by minute in 29 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Scores first in 11 of 27 matches and wins 10 of them.

Concedes first in 16 and avoids defeat in 5.

Alianza Lima

Scores first in 18 of 29 matches and wins 17 of them.

Concedes first in 11 and avoids defeat in 7.

Players in form

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Jarlin Quintero · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

M. Torres · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Christian Velarde · 0 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches

Alianza Lima

Erick Castillo · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Jairo Vélez · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Federico Girotti · 0 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

0Club Deportivo Los Chankas to win

1Draws

5Alianza Lima to win

6 matches · 2.5 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-05-24	Alianza Lima 3-0 Club Deportivo Los Chankas	Primera División
2025-11-05	Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1-2 Alianza Lima	Primera División
2025-04-19	Alianza Lima 1-0 Club Deportivo Los Chankas	Primera División
2024-08-24	Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0-1 Alianza Lima	Primera División
2024-03-29	Alianza Lima 3-0 Club Deportivo Los Chankas	Primera División
2021-06-11	Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2-2 Alianza Lima	Copa Bicentenario

Standings

Liga 1 standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	33	+30	69
2	Universitario	33	+20	61
3	FBC Melgar	33	+18	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	33	+15	55
5	Sporting Cristal	33	+15	51
6	Cusco	33	-1	51
7	Cienciano	33	+8	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	-1	50
9	Alianza Atlético	33	+1	49
10	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	33	-12	48
11	Sport Boys	33	+2	46
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	-11	41
13	Comerciantes Unidos	33	-3	37
14	Atlético Grau	33	-9	37
15	ADT	33	-12	32
16	FC Cajamarca	33	-19	31
17	UCV Moquegua	33	-21	30
18	UTC Cajamarca	33	-20	19

More stats

Referee: Roberto Perez Gutierrez

25 matches · 3.9 yellows and 0.50 reds per match · 0.38 penalties

Half-time

Club Deportivo Los Chankas: 7 days since last match · Alianza Lima: 4 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 20:30 UTC.