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Charlton vs Sheffield Utd prediction

England · Championship
Charlton badgeCharlton#19 · 17 ptsLLLLD
2 - 1Full time
Sheffield Utd badgeSheffield Utd#10 · 22 ptsWWDWL

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Millenic Alli 12'⚽ Jordan Ayew 25'⚽ Matt Godden 79'

Saturday, November 7 · 10:00 (Peru time) · The Valley · Referee: Matthew Corlett

Picky
🎯 Model pick

Sheffield Utd to score

80%
Full data

⚡ Summary

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

87'🔁 Sub: Ben Brereton · Oliver ArblasterSheffield Utd
87'🔁 Sub: Kalvin Phillips · Tyrese CampbellSheffield Utd
87'🔁 Sub: Tyreece Campbell · Oliver SkippCharlton
79'⚽ Matt Godden assist Millenic AlliCharlton
75'🔁 Sub: Charlie Kelman · Matt GoddenCharlton
71'🔁 Sub: Jordan Ayew · Thomas CannonSheffield Utd
64'🔁 Sub: Joe Rankin-Costello · sonny careyCharlton
64'🔁 Sub: Alan Mwamba · Harvey KnibbsCharlton
60'🟨 Joe Rankin-CostelloCharlton
51'🔁 Sub: Femi Seriki · Mark McGuinnessSheffield Utd
45'🔁 Sub: Hamza Choudhury · Femi SerikiSheffield Utd
38'🟨 Alan MwambaCharlton
36'🟨 Tyler BindonCharlton
35'🟨 Hamza ChoudhurySheffield Utd
32'🟨 Dan McNamaraCharlton
25'⚽ Jordan AyewSheffield Utd
12'⚽ Millenic Alli assist Dan McNamaraCharlton

Win probability minute by minute

CharltonDrawSheffield Utd
At kick-off21%31%48%Full time100%0%0%
0%25%50%75%100% ⚽⚽⚽0'45'90'

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

21%Charlton to win@4.78
31%Draw@3.27
48%Sheffield Utd to win@2.06
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams to score55%
Charlton or draw52%
Sheffield Utd or draw79%
Charlton to score64%
Sheffield Utd to score80%

Most likely scores

1-114%0-110%0-010%1-29%0-29%

Expected goals per the model: Charlton 1.02 · Sheffield Utd 1.62

How many goals will there be?

7%0 goals19%1 goals25%2 goals22%3 goals14%4 goals13%5+ goals

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.64.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.1 in total · Charlton 5.2 · Sheffield Utd 4.9

63%Over 8.5@1.59
53%Over 9.5@1.89
43%Over 10.5@2.33
45678910111213141516+

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 3.8 · el árbitro Matthew Corlett saca 4.0 por partido

51%Over 3.5@1.98
34%Over 4.5@2.95
21%Over 5.5@4.74

⏱️ First half

54% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.43

76%Goal in the 1st half@1.31
42%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.39
70%Goal in the 2st half@1.42

⚽ Goals per team

27%Charlton +1.5@3.68
48%Sheffield Utd +1.5@2.08
11%Charlton to win to nil@9.38

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

1.18Expected goals (xG)0.77
2Shots on target7
6Saves0
1Offsides1
9Shots13
4Yellow cards1
1Corners6
16Fouls10
0Red cards0
51Possession %49

Goals in the last 10 matches

Charlton · last 10 matches
5/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.3goals per match
2.5vs QPR: 0-0 0-0 vs Portsmouth: 0-0 0-0 en Cardiff: 1-3 1-3 ambosvs Bristol City: 1-1 1-1 ambosen Burnley: 2-2 2-2 ambosen Watford: 0-2 0-2 vs Norwich: 1-3 1-3 ambosen Middlesbrough: 0-3 0-3 vs Bolton: 0-1 0-1 vs Sheffield Utd: 2-1 2-1 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Sheffield Utd · last 10 matches
5/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.5goals per match
2.5vs Wolves: 0-1 0-1 en Fleetwood Town: 0-1 0-1 en Stoke City: 1-2 1-2 ambosvs Lincoln: 3-0 3-0 en Portsmouth: 2-3 2-3 ambosen Bristol City: 1-0 1-0 vs Derby: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs Wrexham: 1-0 1-0 en Preston: 3-2 3-2 ambosat Charlton: 1-2 1-2 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

CharltonSheffield Utd
0.8Goals scored per match1.4
1.6Goals conceded per match1.2
71%Matches with over 1.5 goals64%
50%Matches with over 2.5 goals57%
50%Both teams to score57%
21%Clean sheet36%
43%Matches without scoring21%
4.4Corners won per match3.8
1.8Yellow cards per match1.7

Charlton: 14 matches · Sheffield Utd: 14 matches (all competitions with data).

Charlton at home · Sheffield Utd away

Charlton at home
2G3E2P
LLDDD
Sheffield Utd away
3G2E2P
WWLLW

When do they score and concede?

Charlton · goals by minute in 14 matches scored conceded
330-151616-300431-453446-602261-752376-90
Sheffield Utd · goals by minute in 14 matches scored conceded
440-153116-305431-453146-602261-753576-90

The first goal

Charlton

Scores first in 4 of 12 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 3.

Sheffield Utd

Scores first in 4 of 12 matches and wins 3 of them.

Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 5.

Players in form

Charlton

I. Mesik · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

K. Ramsay · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

C. Kelman · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Sheffield Utd

Sydie Peck · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Ben Brereton · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Romelle Donovan · 0 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

4Charlton to win
1Draws
2Sheffield Utd to win

7 matches · 1.7 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-01-17Charlton 1-0 Sheffield UtdChampionship
2025-09-20Sheffield Utd 0-1 CharltonChampionship
2017-03-18Sheffield Utd 2-1 CharltonLeague One
2016-11-26Charlton 1-1 Sheffield UtdLeague One
2014-03-09Sheffield Utd 2-0 CharltonFA Cup
2012-01-21Charlton 1-0 Sheffield UtdLeague One

Standings

Championship standings
#TeamPGDPts
1Birmingham15+1429
2Middlesbrough15+1129
3Stoke City15+629
4Wolves15+828
5West Brom15+828
6Swansea15+426
7Southampton15+1424
8QPR15+624
9West Ham15+1423
10Sheffield Utd15+222
11Portsmouth15+222
12Norwich15+821
13Blackburn15-121
14Cardiff15018
15Wrexham15-218
16Millwall15-418
17Bristol City15-818
18Bolton15-917
19Charlton15-1017
20Watford15-1015
21Lincoln15-1115
22Burnley15-910
23Derby15-1610
24Preston15-178

More stats

Referee: Matthew Corlett

5 matches · 4.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.67 penalties

Half-time

Charlton: 3 days since last match · Sheffield Utd: 3 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 17:30 UTC.

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