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Cerro Largo vs Progreso prediction
Uruguay · Primera División
Cerro Largo
ProgresoProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Thursday, November 12 · 18:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla
Cerro Largo or draw
78%- At home, Cerro Largo are 5W 6D 6L this season
- Head to head: 8W 1D 1L for Cerro Largo
- Pipe is on fire: 2 goals in his last 4 matches
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
📝 Preview
Cerro Largo and Progreso meet in the Primera División.
The PickMania model gives Cerro Largo a 48% chance of winning, 30% for the draw and 22% for Progreso.
2.5 total goals are expected (1.5 from Cerro Largo and 0.9 from Progreso): over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance and both teams to score 50%.
The most likely score is 1-1.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Cerro Largo 1.50 · Progreso 0.95
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.45.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 8.0 in total · Cerro Largo 4.5 · Progreso 3.5
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 4.5
⏱️ First half
44% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.08
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Cerro Largo: 35 matches · Progreso: 35 matches (all competitions with data).
Cerro Largo at home · Progreso away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 13 of 33 matches and wins 8 of them.
Concedes first in 20 and avoids defeat in 6.
Scores first in 13 of 35 matches and wins 9 of them.
Concedes first in 22 and avoids defeat in 3.
Players in form
Pipe · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
A. Segovia · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches
elias leon de · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 1.9 goals per match
| 2026-05-03 | Progreso 0-1 Cerro Largo | Primera División |
| 2025-08-09 | Progreso 1-2 Cerro Largo | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2025-02-07 | Cerro Largo 4-1 Progreso | Primera División - Apertura |
| 2024-11-30 | Cerro Largo 2-1 Progreso | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2024-06-04 | Progreso 0-1 Cerro Largo | Primera División - Apertura |
| 2021-10-17 | Cerro Largo 1-0 Progreso | Primera División - Clausura |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | +22 | 63 |
| 3 | Atlético Torque | 35 | +18 | 63 |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 35 | +14 | 60 |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 | Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 | Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 | Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 35 | -13 | 41 |
| 11 | Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 35 | -8 | 37 |
| 13 | Boston River | 35 | -13 | 37 |
| 14 | Cerro | 35 | -24 | 37 |
| 15 | Progreso | 35 | -18 | 35 |
| 16 | Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
More stats
Cerro Largo: 12 days since last match · Progreso: 11 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-10 16:47 UTC.