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Celtic vs Kilmarnock prediction

Scotland · Premiership

Celtic#1 · 31 ptsWLDWL

1 - 0Full time

Kilmarnock#12 · 9 ptsDLLWL

82%11%7%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Liam Scales 26'

Sunday, 8 November · 11:00 (Peru time) · Celtic Park · Referee: John Beaton

🎯 Model pick

Celtic to win

82%

Full data

At home, Celtic are 6W 1D 3L this season
Kilmarnock in poor form: 3 defeats in their last 5
#1 in the table, Kilmarnock #12

⚡ Summary

82%Celtic to win@1.22 77%Over 2.5 goals@1.30 56%Both teams to score@1.78 71%Corners +9.5 (12.2)@1.4134%Cards +4.5 (3.8)@2.923-0Most likely score · 9%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

89'🔁 Sub: Cathal McCarthy · Erik RingKilmarnock

86'🔁 Sub: Mika Baur · Alex Oxlade-ChamberlainCeltic

86'🔁 Sub: Kieran Tierney · Dane MurrayCeltic

82'🟨 Yang Hyun-JunCeltic

82'🔁 Sub: Benjamin Nygren · Luke McCowanCeltic

76'❌ Benjamin Nygren (missed pen.)Celtic

73'📺 Yang Hyun-JunCeltic

71'🔁 Sub: Kasper Hogh · James ForrestCeltic

70'🔁 Sub: Greg Kiltie · Nicky ClescencoKilmarnock

64'🔁 Sub: Tyreece John-Jules · Djenairo DanielsKilmarnock

64'🔁 Sub: Jamie Brandon · Michael-John Kamson-KamaraKilmarnock

61'🟨 Tyreece John-JulesKilmarnock

50'🟨 Jamie BrandonKilmarnock

45'🔁 Sub: Jota · Yang Hyun-JunCeltic

40'🟨 Cathal McCarthyKilmarnock

33'🟨 Joe HugillKilmarnock

26'⚽ Liam Scales assist Camilo DuranCeltic

15'📺 Mika BaurCeltic

9'🟨 Tom LoweryKilmarnock

Win probability minute by minute

CelticDrawKilmarnock

At kick-off82%11%7%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

82%Celtic to win@1.22

11%Draw@9.17

7%Kilmarnock to win@13.44

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals58%

Both teams to score56%

Celtic or draw93%

Kilmarnock or draw18%

Celtic to score95%

Kilmarnock to score60%

Most likely scores

3-09%2-09%3-18%2-18%4-07%

Expected goals per the model: Celtic 3.23 · Kilmarnock 0.92

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 4.15.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 12.2 in total · Celtic 7.4 · Kilmarnock 4.8

79%Over 8.5@1.26

71%Over 9.5@1.41

62%Over 10.5@1.61

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 3.8

51%Over 3.5@1.96

34%Over 4.5@2.92

21%Over 5.5@4.68

⏱️ First half

55% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 2.27

90%Goal in the 1st half@1.12

66%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@1.51

85%Goal in the 2st half@1.18

⚽ Goals per team

83%Celtic +1.5@1.20

23%Kilmarnock +1.5@4.26

38%Celtic to win to nil@2.62

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

2.29Expected goals (xG)1.53

5Shots on target3

3Saves4

2Offsides0

20Shots7

1Yellow cards5

8Corners3

7Fouls12

0Red cards0

59Possession %41

Goals in the last 10 matches

Celtic · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score3.4goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Kilmarnock · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.5goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

CelticKilmarnock

2.1Goals scored per match1.1

1.4Goals conceded per match2.3

83%Matches with over 1.5 goals75%

72%Matches with over 2.5 goals67%

61%Both teams to score58%

28%Clean sheet17%

11%Matches without scoring33%

8.4Corners won per match5.3

1.5Yellow cards per match2.2

Celtic: 18 matches · Kilmarnock: 12 matches (all competitions with data).

Celtic at home · Kilmarnock away

Celtic at home

6G1E3P

WDLWL

Kilmarnock away

1G1E4P

LLLWD

When do they score and concede?

Celtic · goals by minute in 18 matches scored conceded

Kilmarnock · goals by minute in 12 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Celtic

Scores first in 11 of 18 matches and wins 8 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 3.

Kilmarnock

Scores first in 4 of 11 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 0.

Players in form

Celtic

Camilo Duran · 4 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Callum Osmand · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Liam Scales · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Kilmarnock

Joe Hugill · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

G. Kiltie · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Djenairo Daniels · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

9Celtic to win

1Draws

0Kilmarnock to win

10 matches · 4.0 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-08-09	Kilmarnock 1-5 Celtic	Premiership
2026-02-15	Kilmarnock 2-3 Celtic	Premiership
2025-11-09	Celtic 4-0 Kilmarnock	Premiership
2025-09-14	Kilmarnock 1-2 Celtic	Premiership
2025-04-12	Celtic 5-1 Kilmarnock	Premiership
2025-01-18	Celtic 2-1 Kilmarnock	FA Cup

Standings

Premiership standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Celtic	13	+18	31
2	Rangers	12	+12	27
3	Falkirk	13	+6	21
4	Heart Of Midlothian	12	+4	20
5	Dundee	12	+3	17
6	Dundee Utd	12	0	17
7	ST Johnstone	13	-3	17
8	ST Mirren	13	-10	14
9	Motherwell	13	-6	13
10	Hibernian	12	-2	11
11	Aberdeen	12	-6	11
12	Kilmarnock	13	-16	9

More stats

Half-time

Celtic: 2 days since last match · Kilmarnock: 8 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 18:30 UTC.