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Ceara vs América Mineiro prediction

Brazil · Serie B

Ceara#16 · 43 ptsLLDLW

0 - 1Full time

América Mineiro#19 · 29 ptsWWWLL

53%29%19%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Matías Segovia 51'

Sunday, November 8 · 17:15 (Peru time) · Estadio Castelão · Referee: Edina Alves Batista

🎯 Model pick

Ceara or draw

81%

Full data

At home, Ceara are 10W 4D 6L this season
Head to head: 2W 6D 2L for Ceara
Mineiro is on fire: 3 goals in his last 4 matches

⚡ Summary

53%Ceara to win@1.90 44%Over 2.5 goals@2.27 47%Both teams to score@2.13 58%Corners +9.5 (10.7)@1.7251%Cards +4.5 (4.8)@1.961-1Most likely score · 13%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+7🟨 RichardCeara

90'+4🟨 Lucca Holanda Sampaio TavaresCeara

90'+3🔁 Sub: Matías Segovia · FelipeAmérica Mineiro

90'+3🔁 Sub: Willian · Marcelo Enrique Maçola FilhoAmérica Mineiro

90'+2🟨 BarretoAmérica Mineiro

89'🔁 Sub: Otavio Goncalves · Gabriel De Oliveira Da SilvaAmérica Mineiro

83'🟨 Matías SegoviaAmérica Mineiro

79'🟨 Luidy Montes CarneiroAmérica Mineiro

76'🟨 Lenny Ivo Lobato RomanelliCeara

73'🔁 Sub: Bryan Borges Mascarenhas · Lucas MugniCeara

66'🔁 Sub: Tobias Ostchega · Luidy Montes CarneiroAmérica Mineiro

59'🔁 Sub: Richardson · Matheus AraujoCeara

59'🔁 Sub: Rian Santana · Lenny Ivo Lobato RomanelliCeara

51'⚽ Matías Segovia assist Eduardo PersonAmérica Mineiro

50'🟨 Rian SantanaCeara

45'🔁 Sub: Paulo Victor·Ferreira de Jesus · Eduardo PersonAmérica Mineiro

45'🔁 Sub: Sávio António Alves · Janderson Gabriel De Oliveira MartinsCeara

30'🔁 Sub: Renzo López · Lucca Holanda Sampaio TavaresCeara

Win probability minute by minute

CearaDrawAmérica Mineiro

At kick-off53%29%19%Full time0%0%100%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

53%Ceara to win@1.90

29%Draw@3.50

19%América Mineiro to win@5.30

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score47%

Ceara or draw81%

América Mineiro or draw47%

Ceara to score79%

América Mineiro to score58%

Most likely scores

1-113%1-013%0-011%2-010%2-19%

Expected goals per the model: Ceara 1.59 · América Mineiro 0.87

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.46.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.7 in total · Ceara 5.5 · América Mineiro 5.2

68%Over 8.5@1.47

58%Over 9.5@1.72

48%Over 10.5@2.07

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.8 · el árbitro Edina Alves Batista saca 5.1 por partido

67%Over 3.5@1.49

51%Over 4.5@1.96

36%Over 5.5@2.78

⏱️ First half

39% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 0.96

62%Goal in the 1st half@1.62

25%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@4.02

78%Goal in the 2st half@1.29

⚽ Goals per team

47%Ceara +1.5@2.12

22%América Mineiro +1.5@4.62

32%Ceara to win to nil@3.16

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

1.64Expected goals (xG)1.32

6Shots on target6

5Saves6

2Offsides1

29Shots11

4Yellow cards3

9Corners1

16Fouls10

0Red cards0

64Possession %36

Goals in the last 10 matches

Ceara · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.2goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

América Mineiro · last 10 matches

1/10+2.5 goals1/10both teams to score1.5goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

CearaAmérica Mineiro

1.1Goals scored per match0.7

1.2Goals conceded per match1.5

71%Matches with over 1.5 goals66%

41%Matches with over 2.5 goals45%

54%Both teams to score42%

22%Clean sheet18%

32%Matches without scoring45%

5.3Corners won per match5.2

2.4Yellow cards per match2.1

Ceara: 41 matches · América Mineiro: 38 matches (all competitions with data).

Ceara at home · América Mineiro away

Ceara at home

10G4E6P

LDWWW

América Mineiro away

2G3E14P

WLLLL

When do they score and concede?

Ceara · goals by minute in 41 matches scored conceded

América Mineiro · goals by minute in 38 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Ceara

Scores first in 13 of 38 matches and wins 10 of them.

Concedes first in 25 and avoids defeat in 11.

América Mineiro

Scores first in 17 of 36 matches and wins 7 of them.

Concedes first in 19 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

Ceara

Saulo Mineiro · 3 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

Lenny Lobato · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Joao Gabriel · 0 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches

América Mineiro

Guilherme Parede · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

Matías Segovia · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Willian · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

2Ceara to win

6Draws

2América Mineiro to win

10 matches · 2.0 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-07-17	América Mineiro 1-1 Ceara	Serie B
2024-11-19	Ceara 1-0 América Mineiro	Serie B
2024-07-28	América Mineiro 2-2 Ceara	Serie B
2022-10-01	Ceara 1-2 América Mineiro	Serie A
2022-06-08	América Mineiro 0-2 Ceara	Serie A
2021-12-05	Ceara 0-0 América Mineiro	Serie A

Standings

Serie B standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Novorizontino	37	+34	70
2	Juventude	37	+23	68
3	Vila Nova	37	+15	66
4	Criciuma	37	+7	62
5	Fortaleza EC	37	+11	62
6	CRB	37	+6	58
7	Goias	37	-2	58
8	Atlético Goianiense	37	+10	58
9	Sport Recife	37	+8	55
10	Operario-PR	37	-1	54
11	São Bernardo	37	+10	52
12	Botafogo SP	37	+6	51
13	Cuiaba	37	+2	47
14	Athletic Club	37	0	47
15	Nautico Recife	37	-9	46
16	Ceara	37	-9	43
17	Avai	37	-12	40
18	Londrina	37	-13	32
19	América Mineiro	37	-28	29
20	Ponte Preta	37	-58	15

More stats

Referee: Edina Alves Batista

27 matches · 4.7 yellows and 0.36 reds per match · 0.18 penalties

Half-time

Ceara: 6 days since last match · América Mineiro: 7 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-09 00:50 UTC.