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Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete prediction

Spain · Copa del Rey

Calvo Sotelo

12:30Thu Nov 12

AlbaceteWWWLL

20%24%56%

Probabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo

Thursday, November 12 · 12:30 (Peru time) · New Municipal Stadium Ciudad de Puertollano

🎯 Model pick

Albacete to score

84%

Partial data

Albacete scored in 9 of 13 matches this season
Marín is on fire: 2 goals in his last 4 matches

⚡ Summary

56%Albacete to win@1.78 57%Over 2.5 goals@1.76 55%Both teams to score@1.82 1-1Most likely score · 11%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

📝 Preview

Calvo Sotelo and Albacete meet in the Copa del Rey.

The PickMania model gives Calvo Sotelo a 20% chance of winning, 24% for the draw and 56% for Albacete.

3.1 total goals are expected (1.1 from Calvo Sotelo and 2.0 from Albacete): over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance and both teams to score 55%.

The most likely score is 1-1.

Probabilities

20%Calvo Sotelo to win@5.12

24%Draw@4.10

56%Albacete to win@1.78

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score55%

Calvo Sotelo or draw44%

Albacete or draw80%

Calvo Sotelo to score65%

Albacete to score84%

Most likely scores

1-111%0-19%1-29%0-29%0-07%

Expected goals per the model: Calvo Sotelo 1.11 · Albacete 1.99

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.10.

Corners, cards and first half

⚽ Goals per team

30%Calvo Sotelo +1.5@3.28

59%Albacete +1.5@1.69

9%Calvo Sotelo to win to nil@11.44

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Goals in the last 10 matches

Albacete · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score3.0goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Calvo SoteloAlbacete

0.0Goals scored per match1.0

0.0Goals conceded per match1.9

0%Matches with over 1.5 goals92%

0%Matches with over 2.5 goals62%

0%Both teams to score62%

0%Clean sheet8%

0%Matches without scoring31%

Calvo Sotelo: 0 matches · Albacete: 13 matches (all competitions with data).

Calvo Sotelo at home · Albacete away

Calvo Sotelo at home

0G0E0P

Albacete away

1G1E5P

WLLLD

When do they score and concede?

Albacete · goals by minute in 13 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Albacete

Scores first in 5 of 13 matches and wins 3 of them.

Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

Calvo Sotelo

Sin datos

Albacete

Higinio Marín · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

Victor Valverde da Silva · 0 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

Álex Rubio Roldán · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

More stats

Half-time

Calvo Sotelo: – days since last match · Albacete: 5 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.