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Bulgaria vs Iceland prediction
International · UEFA Nations League
Bulgaria
IcelandProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Friday, November 13 · 14:45 (Peru time)
Iceland or draw
79%- Iceland unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 (D W W D L)
- Away, Iceland are 1W 3D 3L this season
- Óskarsson is on fire: 3 goals in his last 5 matches
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
📝 Preview
Bulgaria and Iceland meet in the UEFA Nations League.
The PickMania model gives Bulgaria a 21% chance of winning, 27% for the draw and 52% for Iceland.
2.5 total goals are expected (0.9 from Bulgaria and 1.6 from Iceland): over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance and both teams to score 48%.
The most likely score is 0-1.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Bulgaria 0.92 · Iceland 1.57
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.49.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 8.9 in total · Bulgaria 4.0 · Iceland 4.9
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 5.4
⏱️ First half
45% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.11
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Bulgaria: 6 matches · Iceland: 9 matches (all competitions with data).
Bulgaria at home · Iceland away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 3 of 5 matches and wins 1 of them.
Concedes first in 2 and avoids defeat in 0.
Scores first in 5 of 8 matches and wins 2 of them.
Concedes first in 3 and avoids defeat in 0.
Players in form
Georgi Rusev · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches
Kristiyan Balov · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches
Atanas Iliev · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches
Orri Óskarsson · 3 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches
Andri Guðjohnsen · 2 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches
Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · 0 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
1 matches · 3.0 goals per match
| 2026-10-03 | Iceland 3-0 Bulgaria | UEFA Nations League |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland | 4 | +6 | 8 |
| 2 | Estonia | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | -5 | 3 |
More stats
Bulgaria: 38 days since last match · Iceland: 38 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.