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Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC prediction

Colombia · Primera A

Bucaramanga#13 · 23 ptsWDWLL

15:30Sat Nov 14

Fortaleza FC#15 · 22 ptsLLLDL

59%28%13%

Probability of each result according to the model

Saturday, November 14 · 15:30 (Peru time)

🎯 Model pick

Bucaramanga to score

83%

Partial data

Bucaramanga scored in 29 of 38 matches this season
Bucaramanga average 1.5 goals per match
Fortaleza FC concede 1.5 goals per match

⚡ Summary

59%Bucaramanga to win@1.70 47%Over 2.5 goals@2.15 46%Both teams to score@2.15 28%Corners +9.5 (7.7)@3.6162%Cards +4.5 (5.6)@1.621-1Most likely score · 13%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

📝 Preview

Bucaramanga and Fortaleza FC meet in the Primera A.

The PickMania model gives Bucaramanga a 59% chance of winning, 28% for the draw and 13% for Fortaleza FC.

2.6 total goals are expected (1.8 from Bucaramanga and 0.8 from Fortaleza FC): over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance and both teams to score 46%.

The most likely score is 1-1.

Probabilities

59%Bucaramanga to win@1.70

28%Draw@3.53

13%Fortaleza FC to win@7.78

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score46%

Bucaramanga or draw87%

Fortaleza FC or draw41%

Bucaramanga to score83%

Fortaleza FC to score53%

Most likely scores

1-113%1-012%2-012%0-010%2-19%

Expected goals per the model: Bucaramanga 1.81 · Fortaleza FC 0.77

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.58.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 7.7 in total · Bucaramanga 3.5 · Fortaleza FC 4.2

37%Over 8.5@2.69

28%Over 9.5@3.61

20%Over 10.5@5.02

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 5.6

76%Over 3.5@1.31

62%Over 4.5@1.62

47%Over 5.5@2.14

⏱️ First half

46% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.19

70%Goal in the 1st half@1.44

33%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.99

75%Goal in the 2st half@1.33

⚽ Goals per team

54%Bucaramanga +1.5@1.85

18%Fortaleza FC +1.5@5.54

36%Bucaramanga to win to nil@2.77

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Goals in the last 10 matches

Bucaramanga · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score2.7goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Fortaleza FC · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score2.7goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

BucaramangaFortaleza FC

1.5Goals scored per match1.1

1.0Goals conceded per match1.5

82%Matches with over 1.5 goals81%

50%Matches with over 2.5 goals51%

61%Both teams to score70%

29%Clean sheet19%

24%Matches without scoring22%

3.5Corners won per match4.0

2.7Yellow cards per match2.4

Bucaramanga: 38 matches · Fortaleza FC: 37 matches (all competitions with data).

Bucaramanga at home · Fortaleza FC away

Bucaramanga at home

7G10E1P

DWDDW

Fortaleza FC away

0G9E9P

LLLDD

When do they score and concede?

Bucaramanga · goals by minute in 35 matches scored conceded

Fortaleza FC · goals by minute in 34 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Bucaramanga

Scores first in 18 of 30 matches and wins 11 of them.

Concedes first in 12 and avoids defeat in 4.

Fortaleza FC

Scores first in 13 of 31 matches and wins 4 of them.

Concedes first in 18 and avoids defeat in 7.

Players in form

Bucaramanga

L. Pons · 3 goals, 0 assists in 4 matches

B. Caicedo · 2 goals, 0 assists in 3 matches

E. Batalla · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Fortaleza FC

F. Pulicastro · 2 goals, 0 assists in 5 matches

J. Garcia · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

S. Navarro · 0 goals, 1 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

5Bucaramanga to win

1Draws

3Fortaleza FC to win

9 matches · 2.3 goals per match

Recent meetings
Fecha	Local		Visitante	Competition
03-05-2026	Fortaleza FC	2-1	Bucaramanga	Primera A
29-11-2025	Fortaleza FC	0-2	Bucaramanga	Primera A
26-11-2025	Bucaramanga	1-2	Fortaleza FC	Primera A
26-09-2025	Fortaleza FC	2-1	Bucaramanga	Primera A
13-04-2025	Bucaramanga	4-0	Fortaleza FC	Primera A
09-11-2024	Bucaramanga	1-0	Fortaleza FC	Primera A

Standings · Apertura

Bucaramanga es 13.º con 23 pts y Fortaleza FC 15.º con 22: 1 punto de diferencia.

Primera A standings
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts	Form
1	Atlético Nacional	19	13	1	5	35:15	+20	40	WWWDW
2	Junior	19	11	2	6	31:24	+7	35	DWDLW
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	29:25	+4	34	LWLWL
4	América de Cali	19	10	3	6	25:15	+10	33	DWWDD
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	31:22	+9	33	WDDWW
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	27:17	+10	31	LLLWW
7	Santa Fe	19	7	8	4	29:22	+7	29	WWLLW
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	7	7	5	26:26	0	28	DWLWL
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	20:16	+4	27	DWDWD
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	31:23	+8	26	DWDDL
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26:24	+2	26	LLLWW
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	20:25	-5	26	WLWWL
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	26:20	+6	23	LLWDW
14	Llaneros	19	4	10	5	17:20	-3	22	WLLWW
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	22:27	-5	22	LDLLL
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	20:33	-13	18	LWLLL
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	13:27	-14	17	WWLLL
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	15:32	-17	17	LWDLW
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	22:35	-13	16	WLLWL
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	15:32	-17	10	WDWLL