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Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC prediction
Colombia · Primera A
Bucaramanga
Fortaleza FCProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Thursday, November 12 · 16:00 (Peru time)
Bucaramanga to score
83%- Bucaramanga scored in 29 of 38 matches this season
- Bucaramanga average 1.5 goals per match
- Fortaleza FC concede 1.5 goals per match
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
📝 Preview
Bucaramanga and Fortaleza FC meet in the Primera A.
The PickMania model gives Bucaramanga a 59% chance of winning, 28% for the draw and 13% for Fortaleza FC.
2.6 total goals are expected (1.8 from Bucaramanga and 0.8 from Fortaleza FC): over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance and both teams to score 46%.
The most likely score is 1-1.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Bucaramanga 1.81 · Fortaleza FC 0.77
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.58.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 7.7 in total · Bucaramanga 3.5 · Fortaleza FC 4.2
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 5.6
⏱️ First half
46% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.19
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Bucaramanga: 38 matches · Fortaleza FC: 37 matches (all competitions with data).
Bucaramanga at home · Fortaleza FC away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 18 of 30 matches and wins 11 of them.
Concedes first in 12 and avoids defeat in 4.
Scores first in 13 of 31 matches and wins 4 of them.
Concedes first in 18 and avoids defeat in 7.
Players in form
L. Pons · 3 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
B. Caicedo · 2 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches
E. Batalla · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
F. Pulicastro · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
J. Garcia · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
S. Navarro · 0 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
9 matches · 2.3 goals per match
| 2026-05-03 | Fortaleza FC 2-1 Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 2025-11-30 | Fortaleza FC 0-2 Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 2025-11-26 | Bucaramanga 1-2 Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
| 2025-09-27 | Fortaleza FC 2-1 Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 2025-04-14 | Bucaramanga 4-0 Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
| 2024-11-10 | Bucaramanga 1-0 Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | +7 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | +4 | 34 |
| 4 | América de Cali | 19 | +10 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | +9 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | +10 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | +7 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | +4 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | +8 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | +2 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | +6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | -17 | 10 |
More stats
Bucaramanga: 3 days since last match · Fortaleza FC: 5 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.