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Brighton vs Brentford prediction

England · Premier League

Brighton#2 · 22 ptsWWDLD

2 - 0Full time

Brentford#8 · 14 ptsWLDLD

51%28%21%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Diego Gomez 15'🟥 Igor Thiago 23'⚽ Pascal Groß 42' (p)

Sunday, November 8 · 09:00 (Peru time) · American Express Stadium · Referee: Michael Oliver

🎯 Model pick

Brighton to score

85%

Full data

Brighton scored in 13 of 16 matches this season
Brighton average 2.4 goals per match
Brentford kept a clean sheet in only 3 of 12

⚡ Summary

51%Brighton to win@1.96 58%Over 2.5 goals@1.72 63%Both teams to score@1.60 48%Corners +9.5 (9.6)@2.1038%Cards +4.5 (4.0)@2.661-1Most likely score · 13%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+3🔁 Sub: Diego Gomez · Malick YalcouyéBrighton

82'🔁 Sub: Maxim De Cuyper · Yankuba MintehBrighton

82'🔁 Sub: Charalampos Kostoulas · Georginio RutterBrighton

78'🔁 Sub: Yasin Ayari · Jack HinshelwoodBrighton

70'🔁 Sub: Sepp van den Berg · Callum WilsonBrentford

69'🟨 Kevin SchadeBrentford

61'🟨 Lewis DunkBrighton

59'🔁 Sub: Keane Lewis-Potter · El Hadji Malick DioufBrentford

59'🔁 Sub: Mamadou Sangare · Mathias JensenBrentford

51'🟨 Mats WiefferBrighton

45'🔁 Sub: Dango Ouattara · Yehor YarmoliukBrentford

45'🔁 Sub: Chema Andrés · Mats WiefferBrighton

45'🔁 Sub: Aaron Hickey · Nathan CollinsBrentford

42'⚽ Pascal Groß (pen.)Brighton

27'🟨 Olivier BoscagliBrighton

23'🟥 Igor ThiagoBrentford

23'📺 Igor ThiagoBrentford

22'🟨 Chema AndrésBrighton

15'⚽ Diego GomezBrighton

5'🟨 Kristoffer AjerBrentford

Win probability minute by minute

BrightonDrawBrentford

At kick-off51%28%21%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

51%Brighton to win@1.96

28%Draw@3.52

21%Brentford to win@4.85

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score63%

Brighton or draw79%

Brentford or draw49%

Brighton to score85%

Brentford to score70%

Most likely scores

1-113%2-19%2-08%1-08%0-07%

Expected goals per the model: Brighton 1.91 · Brentford 1.19

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.10.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.6 in total · Brighton 5.3 · Brentford 4.4

58%Over 8.5@1.72

48%Over 9.5@2.10

38%Over 10.5@2.64

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.0 · el árbitro Michael Oliver saca 3.5 por partido

54%Over 3.5@1.84

38%Over 4.5@2.66

24%Over 5.5@4.16

⏱️ First half

51% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.57

79%Goal in the 1st half@1.26

46%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.15

78%Goal in the 2st half@1.28

⚽ Goals per team

57%Brighton +1.5@1.76

33%Brentford +1.5@3.00

24%Brighton to win to nil@4.22

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

2.24Expected goals (xG)0.71

6Shots on target0

1Offsides3

20Shots5

4Yellow cards2

7Corners3

0Saves4

0Red cards1

11Fouls7

75Possession %25

Goals in the last 10 matches

Brighton · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals1/10both teams to score2.4goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Brentford · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score3.0goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

BrightonBrentford

2.4Goals scored per match2.2

0.7Goals conceded per match1.2

75%Matches with over 1.5 goals100%

56%Matches with over 2.5 goals67%

25%Both teams to score75%

69%Clean sheet25%

19%Matches without scoring0%

6.1Corners won per match4.6

2.1Yellow cards per match2.2

Brighton: 16 matches · Brentford: 12 matches (all competitions with data).

Brighton at home · Brentford away

Brighton at home

5G1E0P

WWWDW

Brentford away

2G4E1P

LDDWD

When do they score and concede?

Brighton · goals by minute in 16 matches scored conceded

Brentford · goals by minute in 12 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Brighton

Scores first in 10 of 14 matches and wins 9 of them.

Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 2.

Brentford

Scores first in 9 of 12 matches and wins 5 of them.

Concedes first in 3 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

Brighton

M. Yalcouye · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Maxim De Cuyper · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches

Georginio Rutter · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Brentford

Igor Thiago · 2 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

Jaidon Anthony · 0 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

Yehor Yarmoliuk · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches

Head to head

4Brighton to win

3Draws

3Brentford to win

10 matches · 2.5 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-02-21	Brentford 0-2 Brighton	Premier League
2025-11-22	Brighton 2-1 Brentford	Premier League
2025-04-19	Brentford 4-2 Brighton	Premier League
2024-12-27	Brighton 0-0 Brentford	Premier League
2024-04-03	Brentford 0-0 Brighton	Premier League
2023-12-06	Brighton 2-1 Brentford	Premier League

Standings

Premier League standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	10	+10	27
2	Brighton	10	+19	22
3	Manchester City	10	+8	21
4	Liverpool	10	+4	18
5	Chelsea	10	+3	16
6	Everton	10	+2	16
7	Bournemouth	10	+2	15
8	Brentford	10	+5	14
9	Leeds	10	+2	14
10	Aston Villa	10	-3	13
11	Tottenham	10	-1	12
12	Newcastle	10	-3	12
13	Hull City	10	0	11
14	Ipswich	10	-5	11
15	Fulham	10	-2	10
16	Nottingham Forest	10	-4	9
17	Coventry	10	-9	9
18	Manchester United	10	-5	8
19	Sunderland	10	-9	8
20	Crystal Palace	10	-14	7

More stats

Referee: Michael Oliver

15 matches · 3.3 yellows and 0.27 reds per match · 0.13 penalties

Half-time

Brighton: 2 days since last match · Brentford: 7 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 16:30 UTC.