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Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia prediction
Argentina · Liga Profesional
Boca Juniors
Defensa Y JusticiaPre-match probabilities
Saturday, November 7 · 15:30 (Peru time) · Alberto J. Armando · Referee: Sebastian Zunino
Over 1.5 goals
76%- 2+ goals in 30 of 46 Boca Juniors matches
- Also in 24 of 31 Defensa Y Justicia matches
- Picky expects 2.8 goals (1.9 - 0.8)
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Boca Juniors 1.95 · Defensa Y Justicia 0.81
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.76.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.3 in total · Boca Juniors 5.4 · Defensa Y Justicia 3.9
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.9 · el árbitro Sebastian Zunino saca 3.6 por partido
⏱️ First half
52% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.44
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Boca Juniors: 46 matches · Defensa Y Justicia: 31 matches (all competitions with data).
Boca Juniors at home · Defensa Y Justicia away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 19 of 33 matches and wins 15 of them.
Concedes first in 14 and avoids defeat in 7.
Scores first in 11 of 19 matches and wins 7 of them.
Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 3.
Players in form
Sebastián Villa · 0 goles, 3 assists in 4 matches
Lautaro Di Lollo · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Miguel Merentiel · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Juan Manuel Gutiérrez · 2 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches
David Barbona · 1 gol, 3 assists in 5 matches
Leandro Fernández · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 1.9 goals per match
| 2026-04-23 | Defensa Y Justicia 0-4 Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-09-27 | Defensa Y Justicia 2-1 Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-03-16 | Boca Juniors 4-0 Defensa Y Justicia | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2024-07-21 | Defensa Y Justicia 2-2 Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2024-02-10 | Boca Juniors 0-0 Defensa Y Justicia | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| 2023-09-15 | Defensa Y Justicia 1-0 Boca Juniors | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | +12 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 3 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | +6 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | +4 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | +4 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | +3 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | +4 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | -8 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | -5 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | -12 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | -7 | 11 |
More stats
38 matches · 3.4 yellows and 0.17 reds per match · 0.17 penalties
Boca Juniors: 6 days since last match · Defensa Y Justicia: 4 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 23:00 UTC.