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Birmingham vs Swansea prediction
England · Championship
Birmingham
SwanseaPre-match probabilities
Saturday, November 7 · 10:00 (Peru time) · St. Andrew's Stadium · Referee: Anthony Backhouse
Birmingham to score
81%- Birmingham scored in 12 of 14 matches this season
- Birmingham average 1.9 goals per match
- Swansea in poor form: 3 defeats in their last 5
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Birmingham 1.72 · Swansea 1.04
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.76.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.1 in total · Birmingham 4.9 · Swansea 4.1
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.9 · el árbitro Anthony Backhouse saca 4.3 por partido
⏱️ First half
58% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.60
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Birmingham: 14 matches · Swansea: 14 matches (all competitions with data).
Birmingham at home · Swansea away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 6 of 13 matches and wins 6 of them.
Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 5.
Scores first in 5 of 12 matches and wins 5 of them.
Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 3.
Players in form
August Priske · 4 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches
L. Millar · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Alex Cochrane · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Joseph Amankwaah Opoku · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches
Ronald · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches
Stephen Eustáquio · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 2.5 goals per match
| 2026-08-08 | Swansea 0-1 Birmingham | League Cup |
| 2026-01-17 | Swansea 1-1 Birmingham | Championship |
| 2025-09-20 | Birmingham 1-0 Swansea | Championship |
| 2024-01-13 | Birmingham 2-2 Swansea | Championship |
| 2023-08-05 | Swansea 1-1 Birmingham | Championship |
| 2023-02-04 | Swansea 3-4 Birmingham | Championship |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | +6 | 29 |
| 4 | Wolves | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 5 | West Brom | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 6 | Swansea | 15 | +4 | 26 |
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | +14 | 23 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | +8 | 21 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | -8 | 18 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | -9 | 17 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | -10 | 17 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | -9 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | -16 | 10 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | -17 | 8 |
More stats
18 matches · 4.3 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.33 penalties
Birmingham: 3 days since last match · Swansea: 3 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 17:40 UTC.