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Bermuda vs St. Lucia prediction
International · Nations League Concacaf
Bermuda
St. LuciaProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Friday, November 13 · 14:00 (Peru time)
Bermuda to score
78%- Bermuda scored in 4 of 4 matches this season
- Bermuda average 1.3 goals per match
- Parfitt-Williams is on fire: 2 goals in his last 3 matches
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
📝 Preview
Bermuda and St. Lucia meet in the Nations League Concacaf.
The PickMania model gives Bermuda a 26% chance of winning, 21% for the draw and 53% for St. Lucia.
3.8 total goals are expected (1.6 from Bermuda and 2.3 from St. Lucia): over 2.5 goals has a 71% chance and both teams to score 70%.
The most likely score is 1-2.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Bermuda 1.57 · St. Lucia 2.28
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.85.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.4 in total · Bermuda 4.8 · St. Lucia 4.6
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 5.0
⏱️ First half
56% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 2.15
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Bermuda: 4 matches · St. Lucia: 4 matches (all competitions with data).
Bermuda at home · St. Lucia away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 3 of 4 matches and wins 0 of them.
Concedes first in 1 and avoids defeat in 0.
Scores first in 3 of 4 matches and wins 3 of them.
Concedes first in 1 and avoids defeat in 0.
Players in form
D. Parfitt-Williams · 2 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches
T. Russell · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches
R. Robinson · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches
K. Caull · 4 goles, 2 assists in 4 matches
K. Frederick · 1 gol, 3 assists in 4 matches
C. Elva · 1 gol, 2 assists in 4 matches
Head to head
1 matches · 7.0 goals per match
| 2026-09-29 | St. Lucia 5-2 Bermuda | CONCACAF Nations League |
More stats
Bermuda: 38 days since last match · St. Lucia: 39 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 06:47 UTC.