Home › International · UEFA Europa League › Benfica vs Lech Poznan
Benfica vs Lech Poznan prediction
International · UEFA Europa League
Benfica
Lech PoznanPre-match probabilities
Thursday, November 5 · 15:00 (Peru time) · Estádio da Luz · Referee: Martin Matosa
Over 1.5 goals
83%- 2+ goals in 18 of 19 Benfica matches
- Also in 18 of 21 Lech Poznan matches
- Picky expects 3.4 goals (2.8 - 0.6)
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Benfica 2.81 · Lech Poznan 0.57
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.38.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 10.5 in total · Benfica 5.8 · Lech Poznan 4.6
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.8
⏱️ First half
42% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.43
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Benfica: 19 matches · Lech Poznan: 21 matches (all competitions with data).
Benfica at home · Lech Poznan away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 14 of 19 matches and wins 13 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 3.
Scores first in 16 of 20 matches and wins 13 of them.
Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 2.
Players in form
Vangelis Pavlidis · 4 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Gianluca Prestianni · 2 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches
Jhon Durán · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
Pablo Rodriguez Delgado · 2 goles, 4 assists in 5 matches
Y. Agnero · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
M. Ishak · 2 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches
Head to head
2 matches · 5.0 goals per match
| 2020-12-03 | Benfica 4-0 Lech Poznan | UEFA Europa League |
| 2020-10-22 | Lech Poznan 2-4 Benfica | UEFA Europa League |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 | Unión St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 | Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 | Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 | OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 | Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 | Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 | Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 | Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 | Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 | Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More stats
1 matches · 5.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.00 penalties
Benfica: 2 days since last match · Lech Poznan: 5 days
L. Barreiro, E. Barrenechea, D. Lukebakio
A. Douglas, A. Gholizadeh, M. Ishak, W. Monka, J. Moutinho, A. Sayyadmanesh
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 00:10 UTC.