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Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction
International · UEFA Europa League
Bayer Leverkusen
MarseillePre-match probabilities
Thursday, November 5 · 15:00 (Peru time) · BayArena · Referee: Orel Grinfeld
Bayer Leverkusen to win
72%- Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of their last 5 (L L W W W)
- At home, Bayer Leverkusen are 4W 0D 1L this season
- #7 in the table, Marseille #31
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Bayer Leverkusen 2.78 · Marseille 1.09
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.87.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.5 in total · Bayer Leverkusen 5.4 · Marseille 4.1
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.5
⏱️ First half
44% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.69
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Bayer Leverkusen: 11 matches · Marseille: 12 matches (all competitions with data).
Bayer Leverkusen at home · Marseille away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 7 of 11 matches and wins 6 of them.
Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 1.
Scores first in 4 of 12 matches and wins 4 of them.
Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 1.
Players in form
Patrik Schick · 4 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Ibrahim Maza · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Jonas Hofmann · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
Amine Gouiri · 2 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches
Igor Paixão · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Timothy Weah · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
1 matches · 3.0 goals per match
| 2023-08-02 | Marseille 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen | Friendlies Clubs |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 | Unión St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 | Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 | Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 | OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 | Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 | Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 | Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 | Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 | Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 | Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More stats
1 matches · 4.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 1.00 penalties
Bayer Leverkusen: 5 days since last match · Marseille: 4 days
E. Ben Seghir, V. Boniface, M. Diaby, G. Doue, K. Eichhorn, C. Kofane, T. Oermann, M. Terrier, L. Bade, N. Tella
D. Cornelius, Emerson
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 00:20 UTC.