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AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen prediction
Netherlands · Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar
GroningenPre-match probabilities
Sunday, November 8 · 10:45 (Peru time) · AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar） · Referee: Jannick van der Laan
Groningen to score
68%- Groningen scored in 11 of 11 matches this season
- Groningen average 2.4 goals per match
- AZ Alkmaar in poor form: 3 defeats in their last 5
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: AZ Alkmaar 2.34 · Groningen 1.16
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.50.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 10.3 in total · AZ Alkmaar 6.1 · Groningen 4.2
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 2.6 · el árbitro Jannick van der Laan saca 2.5 por partido
⏱️ First half
50% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.75
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
AZ Alkmaar: 15 matches · Groningen: 11 matches (all competitions with data).
AZ Alkmaar at home · Groningen away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 9 of 15 matches and wins 8 of them.
Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 1.
Scores first in 8 of 11 matches and wins 4 of them.
Concedes first in 3 and avoids defeat in 1.
Players in form
Mexx Meerdink · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Weslley Pinto Batista · 2 goles, 1 assists in 3 matches
Ro Zangelo Daal · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson · 4 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Thom Van Bergen · 4 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Marco Rente · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 2.4 goals per match
| 2026-03-22 | Groningen 3-0 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| 2025-08-10 | AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 2025-05-11 | AZ Alkmaar 3-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 2024-12-18 | AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Groningen | KNVB Beker |
| 2024-08-25 | Groningen 0-0 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| 2023-03-11 | AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | +25 | 26 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | +19 | 25 |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | +17 | 25 |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | +18 | 24 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | +8 | 21 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 12 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | -13 | 12 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | -29 | 3 |
More stats
13 matches · 2.3 yellows and 0.17 reds per match · 0.17 penalties
AZ Alkmaar: 2 days since last match · Groningen: 7 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 18:40 UTC.