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Auxerre vs Paris FC prediction

France · Ligue 1

Auxerre#14 · 10 ptsLDWLW

0 - 1Full time

Paris FC#3 · 20 ptsWLWLW

27%30%43%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Lassine Sinayoko 63'

Saturday, November 7 · 13:00 (Peru time) · Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps · Referee: Marc Bollengier

🎯 Model pick

Paris FC to score

81%

Full data

Paris FC scored in 6 of 9 matches this season
Paris FC average 1.8 goals per match
Auxerre concede 2.6 goals per match

⚡ Summary

43%Paris FC to win@2.33 55%Over 2.5 goals@1.81 57%Both teams to score@1.76 45%Corners +9.5 (9.4)@2.2225%Cards +4.5 (3.3)@4.011-1Most likely score · 14%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'🔁 Sub: Lassine Sinayoko · Omar SissokoParis FC

90'🔁 Sub: Pablo Pagis · Moustapha MbowParis FC

88'🟨 Kevin DanoisAuxerre

85'🔁 Sub: Fredrik Oppegard · Rayan MandengueAuxerre

80'🟨 William StillAuxerre

74'🔁 Sub: Naouirou Ahamada · Kevin DanoisAuxerre

74'🔁 Sub: Danny Namaso · Remy Labeau LascaryAuxerre

73'🔁 Sub: Ilan Kebbal · Patrick ZabiParis FC

66'🔁 Sub: Moses Simon · Luca KoleoshoParis FC

65'🔁 Sub: Telli Siwe · Clément AkpaAuxerre

65'🔁 Sub: Marvin Senaya · Lamine SyAuxerre

63'⚽ Lassine Sinayoko assist Pablo PagisParis FC

39'📺 Fredrik OppegardAuxerre

16'🟨 Sinaly DiomandeAuxerre

15'🟨 Pierre Lees MelouParis FC

15'🟨 Cameron ArcherAuxerre

Win probability minute by minute

AuxerreDrawParis FC

At kick-off27%30%43%Full time0%0%100%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

27%Auxerre to win@3.71

30%Draw@3.33

43%Paris FC to win@2.33

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score57%

Auxerre or draw57%

Paris FC or draw73%

Auxerre to score72%

Paris FC to score81%

Most likely scores

1-114%1-28%0-08%0-18%2-27%

Expected goals per the model: Auxerre 1.30 · Paris FC 1.66

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.96.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.4 in total · Auxerre 4.4 · Paris FC 5.0

56%Over 8.5@1.80

45%Over 9.5@2.22

35%Over 10.5@2.82

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 3.3 · el árbitro Marc Bollengier saca 2.3 por partido

40%Over 3.5@2.47

25%Over 4.5@4.01

14%Over 5.5@7.01

⏱️ First half

36% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.08

66%Goal in the 1st half@1.52

29%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.41

85%Goal in the 2st half@1.18

⚽ Goals per team

37%Auxerre +1.5@2.68

49%Paris FC +1.5@2.02

12%Auxerre to win to nil@8.40

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

0.75Expected goals (xG)0.94

2Shots on target3

2Saves2

1Offsides0

7Shots10

3Yellow cards1

1Corners5

24Fouls14

0Red cards0

34Possession %66

Goals in the last 10 matches

Auxerre · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals8/10both teams to score3.7goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Paris FC · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.7goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

AuxerreParis FC

1.4Goals scored per match1.8

2.6Goals conceded per match1.1

89%Matches with over 1.5 goals67%

78%Matches with over 2.5 goals67%

89%Both teams to score56%

11%Clean sheet33%

0%Matches without scoring33%

5.1Corners won per match3.4

1.7Yellow cards per match2.3

Auxerre: 9 matches · Paris FC: 9 matches (all competitions with data).

Auxerre at home · Paris FC away

Auxerre at home

2G1E1P

DWWLW

Paris FC away

1G1E2P

LLWDL

When do they score and concede?

Auxerre · goals by minute in 9 matches scored conceded

Paris FC · goals by minute in 9 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Auxerre

Scores first in 2 of 9 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 2.

Paris FC

Scores first in 6 of 7 matches and wins 5 of them.

Concedes first in 1 and avoids defeat in 0.

Players in form

Auxerre

Cameron Archer · 4 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

D. Namaso · 2 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

Romain Faivre · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

Paris FC

Lassine Sinayoko · 4 goles, 5 assists in 5 matches

Maxime López · 2 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

Pablo Pagis · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

3Auxerre to win

4Draws

1Paris FC to win

8 matches · 1.8 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-02-08	Auxerre 0-0 Paris FC	Ligue 1
2025-11-29	Paris FC 1-1 Auxerre	Ligue 1
2024-05-04	Auxerre 2-0 Paris FC	Ligue 2
2023-10-07	Paris FC 0-2 Auxerre	Ligue 2
2022-02-01	Auxerre 1-2 Paris FC	Ligue 2
2021-08-16	Paris FC 1-1 Auxerre	Ligue 2

Standings

Ligue 1 standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	+12	23
2	Lille	10	+7	21
3	Paris FC	10	+7	20
4	Marseille	10	+8	18
5	Lyon	10	+6	17
6	Nice	10	+3	17
7	Monaco	10	+2	16
8	Rennes	10	0	16
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	+6	15
10	Lorient	10	+1	15
11	Lens	10	+2	13
12	Toulouse	10	+1	13
13	Strasbourg	10	-4	10
14	Auxerre	10	-11	10
15	Le Mans	10	-7	8
16	Angers	10	-10	8
17	Estac Troyes	10	-10	8
18	Le Havre	10	-13	2

More stats

Referee: Marc Bollengier

9 matches · 2.0 yellows and 0.33 reds per match · 0.67 penalties

Half-time

Auxerre: 6 days since last match · Paris FC: 6 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 20:30 UTC.