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Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK prediction

Austria · Bundesliga
Austria Lustenau badgeAustria Lustenau#8 · 11 ptsLLLLW
2 - 1Full time
Grazer AK badgeGrazer AK#10 · 10 ptsLDLDD

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Jacob Italiano 9'⚽ Seydou Diarra 51'🟥 Yannick Oberleitner 63'⚽ Dion Kacuri 90'

Saturday, November 7 · 11:00 (Peru time) · Planet Pure Stadion · Referee: Markus Greinecker

Picky
🎯 Model pick

Austria Lustenau to score

80%
Partial data

⚡ Summary

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+3🟨 Jacob ItalianoGrazer AK
90'+3🟨 Dominik WeixelbraunAustria Lustenau
90'+1🟨 Dion KacuriAustria Lustenau
90'⚽ Dion KacuriAustria Lustenau
84'🔁 Sub: Albin Gashi · Haris IsmailcebiogluAustria Lustenau
81'🔁 Sub: Tim Trummer · Matthias GraggerGrazer AK
70'🔁 Sub: Lord Afrifa · Sacha DelayeAustria Lustenau
70'🔁 Sub: Lenn Jastremski · Antonio VerinacAustria Lustenau
70'🔁 Sub: Souleyman mandey · Mark GroßeGrazer AK
70'🔁 Sub: Christian Lichtenberger · Michael SollbauerGrazer AK
63'🟥 Yannick OberleitnerGrazer AK
51'⚽ Seydou DiarraAustria Lustenau
37'🔁 Sub: Emmanuel Chukwu · Matthias MaakAustria Lustenau
31'🟨 Yannick OberleitnerGrazer AK
9'⚽ Jacob Italiano assist Yannick OberleitnerGrazer AK

Win probability minute by minute

Austria LustenauDrawGrazer AK
At kick-off40%31%29%Full time100%0%0%
0%25%50%75%100% ⚽⚽⚽0'45'90'

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

40%Austria Lustenau to win@2.49
31%Draw@3.22
29%Grazer AK to win@3.47
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams to score60%
Austria Lustenau or draw71%
Grazer AK or draw60%
Austria Lustenau to score80%
Grazer AK to score74%

Most likely scores

1-114%2-18%0-08%1-07%2-27%

Expected goals per the model: Austria Lustenau 1.61 · Grazer AK 1.35

How many goals will there be?

5%0 goals15%1 goals23%2 goals22%3 goals17%4 goals18%5+ goals

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.96.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 11.8 in total · Austria Lustenau 5.5 · Grazer AK 6.4

77%Over 8.5@1.30
68%Over 9.5@1.47
59%Over 10.5@1.70
45678910111213141516+

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.6

64%Over 3.5@1.56
48%Over 4.5@2.10
33%Over 5.5@3.04

⏱️ First half

53% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.56

79%Goal in the 1st half@1.27
46%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.17
75%Goal in the 2st half@1.33

⚽ Goals per team

48%Austria Lustenau +1.5@2.09
39%Grazer AK +1.5@2.56
18%Austria Lustenau to win to nil@5.41

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

3Shots on target4
4Saves1
2Offsides0
16Shots8
2Yellow cards1
5Corners4
0Red cards1
8Fouls9
65Possession %35
1.14Expected goals (xG)0.59

Goals in the last 10 matches

Austria Lustenau · last 10 matches
8/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score4.0goals per match
2.5vs Wolfsberger AC: 2-1 2-1 ambosen Sturm Graz: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs WSG Wattens: 0-4 0-4 en Austria Vienna: 1-2 1-2 ambosvs SCR Altach: 2-0 2-0 en TSV Hartberg: 3-4 3-4 ambosvs Lask Linz: 0-4 0-4 en Rapid Vienna: 1-5 1-5 ambosen Red Bull Salzburg: 1-5 1-5 ambosvs Grazer AK: 2-1 2-1 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Grazer AK · last 10 matches
6/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score3.2goals per match
2.5en Rapid Vienna: 0-8 0-8 en Ried: 0-1 0-1 vs Wolfsberger AC: 0-0 0-0 en SCR Altach: 2-1 2-1 ambosvs Austria Vienna: 2-2 2-2 ambosvs Red Bull Salzburg: 0-0 0-0 en Sturm Graz: 1-6 1-6 ambosen WSG Wattens: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs TSV Hartberg: 0-4 0-4 at Austria Lustenau: 1-2 1-2 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Austria LustenauGrazer AK
1.2Goals scored per match0.7
2.6Goals conceded per match2.5
100%Matches with over 1.5 goals73%
73%Matches with over 2.5 goals64%
73%Both teams to score45%
9%Clean sheet18%
18%Matches without scoring55%
4.9Corners won per match4.2
2.0Yellow cards per match2.5

Austria Lustenau: 11 matches · Grazer AK: 11 matches (all competitions with data).

Austria Lustenau at home · Grazer AK away

Austria Lustenau at home
2G1E2P
LWLWD
Grazer AK away
1G1E4P
DLWLL

When do they score and concede?

Austria Lustenau · goals by minute in 11 matches scored conceded
240-152216-304531-453546-600661-752776-90
Grazer AK · goals by minute in 11 matches scored conceded
440-151416-301731-451446-601561-750376-90

The first goal

Austria Lustenau

Scores first in 5 of 11 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 0.

Grazer AK

Scores first in 5 of 9 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 0.

Players in form

Austria Lustenau

D. Weixelbraun · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Albin Gashi · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

A. Verinac · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Grazer AK

A. Hofleitner · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

C. Cvetko · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

J. Italiano · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Head to head

2Austria Lustenau to win
2Draws
3Grazer AK to win

7 matches · 2.3 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-08-08Grazer AK 2-1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
2021-11-26Grazer AK 0-0 Austria Lustenau2. League
2021-07-25Austria Lustenau 2-1 Grazer AK2. League
2021-05-12Grazer AK 2-0 Austria Lustenau2. League
2020-12-11Austria Lustenau 3-1 Grazer AK2. League
2020-06-06Grazer AK 1-1 Austria Lustenau2. League

Standings

Bundesliga standings
#TeamPGDPts
1Rapid Vienna12+3033
2Red Bull Salzburg12+2430
3Lask Linz12+1525
4TSV Hartberg12+420
5Sturm Graz12+519
6Ried12-116
7WSG Wattens12-313
8Austria Lustenau12-1511
9SCR Altach12-910
10Grazer AK12-2010
11Austria Vienna12-128
12Wolfsberger AC12-186

More stats

Referee: Markus Greinecker

2 matches · 3.5 yellows and 0.50 reds per match · 0.00 penalties

Half-time

Austria Lustenau: 6 days since last match · Grazer AK: 7 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 18:30 UTC.

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