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Aucas vs Independiente del Valle prediction
Ecuador · Liga Pro
Aucas
Independiente del VallePre-match probabilities
Sunday, November 8 · 13:45 (Peru time) · Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda · Referee: Yerson Zambrano
Independiente del Valle or draw
79%- Independiente del Valle unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 (W D L W D)
- Away, Independiente del Valle are 15W 2D 4L this season
- Aucas in poor form: 3 defeats in their last 5
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Aucas 0.84 · Independiente del Valle 1.32
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.16.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.3 in total · Aucas 4.2 · Independiente del Valle 5.2
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 4.1 · el árbitro Yerson Zambrano saca 4.0 por partido
⏱️ First half
45% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 0.97
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Aucas: 35 matches · Independiente del Valle: 44 matches (all competitions with data).
Aucas at home · Independiente del Valle away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 19 of 32 matches and wins 13 of them.
Concedes first in 13 and avoids defeat in 5.
Scores first in 30 of 42 matches and wins 26 of them.
Concedes first in 12 and avoids defeat in 6.
Players in form
Ayrton Preciado · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
B. Oyola · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
Andres Mena · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches
Carlos González · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches
Djorkaeff Reascos · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
Hugo Quintana · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 2.7 goals per match
| 2026-10-10 | Independiente del Valle 2-1 Aucas | Liga Pro |
| 2026-07-16 | Aucas 0-3 Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| 2026-03-14 | Independiente del Valle 2-2 Aucas | Liga Pro |
| 2025-07-19 | Independiente del Valle 2-1 Aucas | Liga Pro |
| 2025-03-28 | Aucas 1-2 Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| 2024-09-01 | Aucas 0-2 Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | +40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | +24 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | +5 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | +7 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | +7 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | -1 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | -9 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | -3 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | -12 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | -11 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | -14 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | -25 | 21 |
More stats
34 matches · 3.9 yellows and 0.14 reds per match · 0.14 penalties
Aucas: 7 days since last match · Independiente del Valle: 7 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 21:20 UTC.