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Atlético San Luis vs FC Juárez prediction

Mexico · Liga MX
Atlético San Luis badgeAtlético San Luis#14 · 19 ptsLWWDL
0 - 1Full time
FC Juárez badgeFC Juárez#18 · 11 ptsWDLLD

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Oscar Estupiñan 85' (p)

Friday, November 6 · 20:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Libertad Financiera · Referee: Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez

Picky
🎯 Model pick

Atlético San Luis or draw

84%
Full data

⚡ Summary

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+3🟨 Francisco NevarezFC Juárez
87'🔁 Sub: Oscar Estupiñan · Ricardo JuárezFC Juárez
87'🔁 Sub: Eder Lopez · MonchuFC Juárez
86'🔁 Sub: David Rodriguez · Román TorresAtlético San Luis
86'🔁 Sub: Aldo Cruz · Santiago MuñozAtlético San Luis
85'⚽ Oscar Estupiñan (pen.)FC Juárez
84'🟨 Robson BambuAtlético San Luis
81'📺 José Luis RodríguezFC Juárez
79'🟨 Eder LopezFC Juárez
78'🔁 Sub: Felipe Mora · Johan CaicedoAtlético San Luis
78'🔁 Sub: Anderson Duarte · Sebastián Pérez BouquetAtlético San Luis
70'🔁 Sub: Guilherme Castilho · José Luis RodríguezFC Juárez
70'🔁 Sub: Rafael Llorente · Leonardo FloresAtlético San Luis
64'🟨 Aldo CruzAtlético San Luis
58'🔁 Sub: Madson de Souza Silva · Ían TorresFC Juárez
41'🟨 Leonardo Rodríguez SilvaFC Juárez

Win probability minute by minute

Atlético San LuisDrawFC Juárez
At kick-off57%26%16%Full time0%0%100%
0%25%50%75%100% ⚽0'45'90'

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

57%Atlético San Luis to win@1.74
26%Draw@3.78
16%FC Juárez to win@6.22
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Both teams to score55%
Atlético San Luis or draw84%
FC Juárez or draw43%
Atlético San Luis to score85%
FC Juárez to score62%

Most likely scores

1-112%2-010%1-010%2-19%0-08%

Expected goals per the model: Atlético San Luis 1.95 · FC Juárez 0.98

How many goals will there be?

5%0 goals16%1 goals23%2 goals22%3 goals16%4 goals17%5+ goals

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.93.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.6 in total · Atlético San Luis 5.2 · FC Juárez 5.3

67%Over 8.5@1.50
57%Over 9.5@1.76
47%Over 10.5@2.13
45678910111213141516+

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 3.5 · el árbitro Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez saca 3.3 por partido

45%Over 3.5@2.21
29%Over 4.5@3.43
17%Over 5.5@5.75

⏱️ First half

37% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.09

66%Goal in the 1st half@1.51
30%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.37
84%Goal in the 2st half@1.19

⚽ Goals per team

58%Atlético San Luis +1.5@1.72
26%FC Juárez +1.5@3.89
30%Atlético San Luis to win to nil@3.31

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

0.72Expected goals (xG)1.48
8Shots on target4
3Saves8
1Offsides0
17Shots15
2Yellow cards3
8Corners3
9Fouls22
0Red cards0
59Possession %41

Goals in the last 10 matches

Atlético San Luis · last 10 matches
5/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.5goals per match
2.5vs Guadalajara Chivas: 0-3 0-3 en León: 0-2 0-2 vs Necaxa: 3-1 3-1 ambosen U.N.A.M. - Pumas: 3-2 3-2 ambosvs Santos Laguna: 1-2 1-2 ambosen Toluca: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs Club Querétaro: 2-1 2-1 ambosen Atlante FC: 1-0 1-0 vs Atlas: 0-1 0-1 vs FC Juárez: 0-1 0-1

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

FC Juárez · last 10 matches
4/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.5goals per match
2.5vs CF Pachuca: 0-2 0-2 en Santos Laguna: 1-2 1-2 ambosvs Tigres UANL: 2-0 2-0 en León: 1-2 1-2 ambosvs Club Tijuana: 1-1 1-1 ambosen Cruz Azul: 0-5 0-5 vs Atlante FC: 0-1 0-1 en Necaxa: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs Club Querétaro: 3-1 3-1 ambosat Atlético San Luis: 1-0 1-0

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Atlético San LuisFC Juárez
1.3Goals scored per match0.8
1.5Goals conceded per match2.3
80%Matches with over 1.5 goals80%
60%Matches with over 2.5 goals53%
60%Both teams to score53%
13%Clean sheet7%
33%Matches without scoring40%
3.3Corners won per match4.1
0.9Yellow cards per match2.7

Atlético San Luis: 15 matches · FC Juárez: 15 matches (all competitions with data).

Atlético San Luis at home · FC Juárez away

Atlético San Luis at home
2G2E4P
LWLWL
FC Juárez away
0G1E6P
DLLLL

When do they score and concede?

Atlético San Luis · goals by minute in 15 matches scored conceded
140-153116-302131-456446-602861-755576-90
FC Juárez · goals by minute in 15 matches scored conceded
050-151516-304631-451446-601461-7551076-90

The first goal

Atlético San Luis

Scores first in 7 of 14 matches and wins 4 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 3.

FC Juárez

Scores first in 4 of 15 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 11 and avoids defeat in 2.

Players in form

Atlético San Luis

F. Mora · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches

R. Llorente · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

B. Galdames · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

FC Juárez

Daniel Piña · 0 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

Rodrigo Dourado · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Oscar Estupiñan · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

3Atlético San Luis to win
1Draws
6FC Juárez to win

10 matches · 2.9 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-04-26FC Juárez 2-1 Atlético San LuisLiga MX
2025-11-01Atlético San Luis 1-2 FC JuárezLiga MX
2025-03-08Atlético San Luis 1-0 FC JuárezLiga MX
2024-10-28FC Juárez 2-4 Atlético San LuisLiga MX
2024-04-08Atlético San Luis 2-3 FC JuárezLiga MX
2023-10-26FC Juárez 3-2 Atlético San LuisLiga MX

Standings

Liga MX standings
#TeamPGDPts
1Cruz Azul16+1132
2Club América16+1530
3Guadalajara Chivas16+1130
4Toluca16+1427
5Atlas16-327
6Santos Laguna16+325
7Club León16+223
8CF Pachuca16+922
9Club Tijuana16+322
10Monterrey15+121
11U.N.A.M. - Pumas16-221
12Club Querétaro15-520
13Puebla16-419
14Atlético San Luis16-519
15Tigres UANL16-815
16Atlante FC16-1014
17Necaxa16-1113
18FC Juárez16-2111

More stats

Referee: Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez

18 matches · 3.0 yellows and 0.33 reds per match · 0.56 penalties

Half-time

Atlético San Luis: 7 days since last match · FC Juárez: 7 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 03:30 UTC.

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