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Atlético Nacional vs Once Caldas prediction
Colombia · Primera A
Atlético Nacional
Once CaldasProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Thursday, November 12 · 16:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Atlético Nacional to score
80%- Atlético Nacional scored in 33 of 44 matches this season
- Atlético Nacional average 2.0 goals per match
- Once Caldas kept a clean sheet in only 9 of 39
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
📝 Preview
Atlético Nacional and Once Caldas meet in the Primera A.
The PickMania model gives Atlético Nacional a 49% chance of winning, 29% for the draw and 22% for Once Caldas.
2.7 total goals are expected (1.7 from Atlético Nacional and 1.1 from Once Caldas): over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance and both teams to score 60%.
The most likely score is 1-1.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Atlético Nacional 1.67 · Once Caldas 1.06
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.73.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.3 in total · Atlético Nacional 4.7 · Once Caldas 4.6
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 5.5
⏱️ First half
45% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.23
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Atlético Nacional: 44 matches · Once Caldas: 39 matches (all competitions with data).
Atlético Nacional at home · Once Caldas away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 21 of 41 matches and wins 20 of them.
Concedes first in 20 and avoids defeat in 10.
Scores first in 23 of 36 matches and wins 13 of them.
Concedes first in 13 and avoids defeat in 5.
Players in form
E. Cardona · 3 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches
J. Rengifo · 1 gol, 2 assists in 4 matches
A. Morelos · 2 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches
M. Barrios · 2 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches
Dayro Moreno · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
J. A. Zapata Ramirez · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 2.1 goals per match
| 2026-05-01 | Once Caldas 1-0 Atlético Nacional | Primera A |
| 2025-10-22 | Atlético Nacional 2-0 Once Caldas | Copa Colombia |
| 2025-10-10 | Once Caldas 0-1 Atlético Nacional | Copa Colombia |
| 2025-07-12 | Once Caldas 1-3 Atlético Nacional | Primera A |
| 2025-06-19 | Once Caldas 1-2 Atlético Nacional | Primera A |
| 2025-06-02 | Atlético Nacional 0-0 Once Caldas | Primera A |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | +7 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | +4 | 34 |
| 4 | América de Cali | 19 | +10 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | +9 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | +10 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | +7 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | +4 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | +8 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | +2 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | +6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | -17 | 10 |
More stats
Atlético Nacional: 4 days since last match · Once Caldas: 4 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.