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Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona prediction
Spain · La Liga
Atlético Madrid
BarcelonaPre-match probabilities
Sunday, November 8 · 15:00 (Peru time) · Riyadh Air Metropolitano · Referee: Javier Alberola Rojas
Atlético Madrid to score
78%- Atlético Madrid scored in 13 of 15 matches this season
- Atlético Madrid average 1.7 goals per match
- Barcelona concede 1.2 goals per match
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Atlético Madrid 1.51 · Barcelona 2.24
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.75.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.1 in total · Atlético Madrid 4.0 · Barcelona 5.1
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.8 · el árbitro Javier Alberola Rojas saca 4.3 por partido
⏱️ First half
35% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.32
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Atlético Madrid: 15 matches · Barcelona: 15 matches (all competitions with data).
Atlético Madrid at home · Barcelona away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 12 of 15 matches and wins 10 of them.
Concedes first in 3 and avoids defeat in 1.
Scores first in 10 of 15 matches and wins 10 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 3.
Players in form
Julián Álvarez · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Alejandro Grimaldo · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Alejandro Baena Rodríguez · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Lamine Yamal · 5 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches
Fermín López · 1 gol, 5 assists in 5 matches
Raphael Dias Belloli · 5 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 3.7 goals per match
| 2026-04-14 | Atlético Madrid 1-2 Barcelona | UEFA Champions League |
| 2026-04-08 | Barcelona 0-2 Atlético Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| 2026-04-04 | Atlético Madrid 1-2 Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2026-03-03 | Barcelona 3-0 Atlético Madrid | Copa del Rey |
| 2026-02-12 | Atlético Madrid 4-0 Barcelona | Copa del Rey |
| 2025-12-02 | Barcelona 3-1 Atlético Madrid | La Liga |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | +35 | 33 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 12 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Alavés | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | -10 | 12 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | Levante | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Elche | 12 | -6 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 | Málaga | 12 | -14 | 5 |
More stats
21 matches · 4.2 yellows and 0.10 reds per match · 0.10 penalties
Atlético Madrid: 5 days since last match · Barcelona: 5 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 22:30 UTC.