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Atlético Grau vs Cusco prediction

Peru · Liga 1

Atlético Grau#14 · 37 ptsLLDLD

3 - 0Full time

Cusco#6 · 51 ptsLWWLL

31%31%38%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Patricio Álvarez 41' (p)⚽ Henri Espinoza 69'⚽ Adrián Fernández 80'

Friday, 6 November · 15:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Municipal Ambrosio Maco Arroyo · Referee: Rudy Mendez

🎯 Model pick

Cusco to score

76%

Full data

Cusco scored in 29 of 38 matches this season
Cusco average 1.3 goals per match
Atlético Grau concede 1.3 goals per match

⚡ Summary

38%Cusco to win@2.65 50%Over 2.5 goals@2.00 58%Both teams to score@1.73 38%Corners +9.5 (8.7)@2.6142%Cards +4.5 (4.3)@2.371-1Most likely score · 14%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

86'🟨 Gerardo AmeliAtlético Grau

82'🔁 Sub: Diego Soto · Oswaldo ValenzuelaCusco

80'⚽ Adrián Fernández assist Gabriel AlfaroAtlético Grau

79'🔁 Sub: Eslyn Imanol Correa Vilela · Freddy OncoyAtlético Grau

75'📺 Juan Manuel TévezCusco

71'🔁 Sub: Marlon Ruidías · Juan Manuel TévezCusco

69'⚽ Henri Espinoza assist Adrián FernándezAtlético Grau

66'🟨 Eslyn Imanol Correa VilelaAtlético Grau

61'🔁 Sub: Luis Benites · Diego BarretoAtlético Grau

61'🔁 Sub: Nicolás Silva · Joel HerreraCusco

60'🔁 Sub: Paulo De La Cruz · Henri EspinozaAtlético Grau

45'🔁 Sub: Diego Rodriguez · Christian VasquezAtlético Grau

45'🔁 Sub: Rodrigo Tapia · Lucas AcevedoAtlético Grau

41'⚽ Patricio Álvarez (pen.)Atlético Grau

1'🟨 Marlon RuidíasCusco

Win probability minute by minute

Atlético GrauDrawCusco

At kick-off31%31%38%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

31%Atlético Grau to win@3.22

31%Draw@3.21

38%Cusco to win@2.65

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score58%

Atlético Grau or draw62%

Cusco or draw69%

Atlético Grau to score72%

Cusco to score76%

Most likely scores

1-114%0-09%0-18%1-28%1-07%

Expected goals per the model: Atlético Grau 1.29 · Cusco 1.44

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.73.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 8.7 in total · Atlético Grau 4.1 · Cusco 4.7

49%Over 8.5@2.05

38%Over 9.5@2.61

29%Over 10.5@3.42

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.3

59%Over 3.5@1.70

42%Over 4.5@2.37

28%Over 5.5@3.58

⏱️ First half

40% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.10

67%Goal in the 1st half@1.50

30%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.33

80%Goal in the 2st half@1.24

⚽ Goals per team

37%Atlético Grau +1.5@2.71

42%Cusco +1.5@2.37

15%Atlético Grau to win to nil@6.55

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

1.37Expected goals (xG)1.18

3Shots on target2

2Saves0

1Offsides4

9Shots11

1Yellow cards1

2Corners6

16Fouls7

0Red cards0

39Possession %61

Goals in the last 10 matches

Atlético Grau · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score3.1goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Cusco · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.4goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Atlético GrauCusco

0.9Goals scored per match1.3

1.3Goals conceded per match1.5

53%Matches with over 1.5 goals74%

41%Matches with over 2.5 goals58%

41%Both teams to score61%

31%Clean sheet16%

44%Matches without scoring24%

3.5Corners won per match4.3

1.9Yellow cards per match2.0

Atlético Grau: 32 matches · Cusco: 38 matches (all competitions with data).

Atlético Grau at home · Cusco away

Atlético Grau at home

7G4E5P

LDDWW

Cusco away

6G1E12P

WLWWL

When do they score and concede?

Atlético Grau · goals by minute in 23 matches scored conceded

Cusco · goals by minute in 27 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Atlético Grau

Scores first in 9 of 21 matches and wins 6 of them.

Concedes first in 12 and avoids defeat in 2.

Cusco

Scores first in 16 of 27 matches and wins 12 of them.

Concedes first in 11 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

Atlético Grau

A. Vasquez · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Adrián Fernández · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Patricio Álvarez · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Cusco

Facundo Callejo · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Ivan Colman · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Aldair Fuentes · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

Head to head

3Atlético Grau to win

4Draws

2Cusco to win

9 matches · 1.3 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-05-23	Cusco 1-0 Atlético Grau	Primera División
2025-10-25	Cusco 1-0 Atlético Grau	Primera División
2025-06-19	Atlético Grau 0-0 Cusco	Primera División
2025-03-07	Atlético Grau 0-0 Cusco	CONMEBOL Sudamericana
2024-10-28	Cusco 0-1 Atlético Grau	Primera División
2024-05-17	Atlético Grau 4-0 Cusco	Primera División

Standings

Liga 1 standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	33	+30	69
2	Universitario	33	+20	61
3	FBC Melgar	33	+18	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	33	+15	55
5	Sporting Cristal	33	+15	51
6	Cusco	33	-1	51
7	Cienciano	33	+8	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	-1	50
9	Alianza Atlético	33	+1	49
10	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	33	-12	48
11	Sport Boys	33	+2	46
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	-11	41
13	Comerciantes Unidos	33	-3	37
14	Atlético Grau	33	-9	37
15	ADT	33	-12	32
16	FC Cajamarca	33	-19	31
17	UCV Moquegua	33	-21	30
18	UTC Cajamarca	33	-20	19

More stats

Half-time

Atlético Grau: 4 days since last match · Cusco: 5 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 22:30 UTC.