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Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty prediction
International · UEFA Europa Conference League
Atalanta
Kairat AlmatyPre-match probabilities
Thursday, November 5 · 12:45 (Peru time) · New Balance Arena · Referee: Julian Weinberger
Over 1.5 goals
85%- 2+ goals in 11 of 14 Atalanta matches
- Also in 6 of 10 Kairat Almaty matches
- Picky expects 3.5 goals (3.0 - 0.6)
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Atalanta 2.96 · Kairat Almaty 0.57
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.53.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.7 in total · Atalanta 4.5 · Kairat Almaty 5.2
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.1 · el árbitro J. Weinberger saca 3.0 por partido
⏱️ First half
47% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.67
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Atalanta: 14 matches · Kairat Almaty: 10 matches (all competitions with data).
Atalanta at home · Kairat Almaty away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 7 of 13 matches and wins 5 of them.
Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 1.
Scores first in 4 of 10 matches and wins 3 of them.
Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 0.
Players in form
N. Krstovic · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Charles De Ketelaere · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches
Nicola Zalewski · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches
I. Bekbolat · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches
M. Gual · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches
A. Shirobokov · 0 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 | Panathinaikos | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 | Twente | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 | Monaco | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Brighton | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Brann | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | FC Copenhagen | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 | Universitatea Craiova | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 9 | Mjallby AIF | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 | St. Truiden | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 11 | Ajax | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 12 | Trabzonspor | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 13 | HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | SC Freiburg | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Atalanta | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | SC Braga | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 18 | Gent | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 | Riga | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | FC Thun | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 | Borac Banja Luka | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 23 | FK Jablonec | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 24 | Aarhus | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 25 | FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 26 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 27 | Kairat Almaty | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 | Pafos | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 31 | Getafe | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 | Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 33 | KuPS | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 | FC Midtjylland | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | -10 | 0 |
More stats
16 matches · 3.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.00 penalties
Atalanta: 2 days since last match · Kairat Almaty: 14 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 00:30 UTC.