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Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata prediction

Greece · Super League 1

Asteras Tripolis#11 · 7 ptsLDLWD

1 - 1Full time

Kalamata#8 · 12 ptsDLWWL

44%29%27%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Federico Macheda 45'⚽ Jovanny Bolivar 67'

Sunday, 8 November · 10:00 (Peru time) · Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium · Referee: Anastasios Papapetrou

🎯 Model pick

Asteras Tripolis to score

77%

Partial data

Asteras Tripolis scored in 6 of 9 matches this season
Kalamata concede 2.0 goals per match
Kalamata kept a clean sheet in only 0 of 9

⚡ Summary

44%Asteras Tripolis to win@2.28 48%Over 2.5 goals@2.10 52%Both teams to score@1.91 40%Corners +9.5 (8.9)@2.5165%Cards +4.5 (5.8)@1.551-1Most likely score · 14%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

89'🟨 Franco OrozcoAsteras Tripolis

86'🔁 Sub: Erik Hamza · Mamadou SoumahoroKalamata

83'🟨 Jovanny BolivarKalamata

83'🔁 Sub: Federico Macheda · Ricardo Viana FilhoAsteras Tripolis

81'🟨 Giannis KotsirasAsteras Tripolis

80'🔁 Sub: Arnór Sigurðsson · Julián BonettoKalamata

80'🟨 Federico MachedaAsteras Tripolis

74'🔁 Sub: Eder González · Julián ChiccoAsteras Tripolis

74'🔁 Sub: Alejandro·Mendez Garcia · Chrysanthos GezosAsteras Tripolis

67'⚽ Jovanny Bolivar assist Marcelino CarreazoKalamata

62'🔁 Sub: Giannis Bouzoukis · Antonis PapakanellosAsteras Tripolis

62'🔁 Sub: Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka · Kalvin KetuAsteras Tripolis

59'🔁 Sub: J. Cataldi · Marcelino CarreazoKalamata

59'🔁 Sub: Ahmad Mendes Moreira · Jovanny BolivarKalamata

48'🟨 Giannis BouzoukisAsteras Tripolis

45'+1⚽ Federico Macheda assist Franco OrozcoAsteras Tripolis

45'🔁 Sub: Stefanos Stroungis · M. BakayokoKalamata

37'🟨 Antônio Josenildo Rodrigues de OliveiraKalamata

36'🟨 Jordan SilvaAsteras Tripolis

Win probability minute by minute

Asteras TripolisDrawKalamata

At kick-off44%29%27%Full time0%100%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

44%Asteras Tripolis to win@2.28

29%Draw@3.39

27%Kalamata to win@3.75

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score52%

Asteras Tripolis or draw73%

Kalamata or draw56%

Asteras Tripolis to score77%

Kalamata to score67%

Most likely scores

1-114%1-010%0-09%2-19%2-08%

Expected goals per the model: Asteras Tripolis 1.49 · Kalamata 1.12

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.61.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 8.9 in total · Asteras Tripolis 4.9 · Kalamata 3.9

50%Over 8.5@1.99

40%Over 9.5@2.51

31%Over 10.5@3.27

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 5.8 · el árbitro Anastasios Papapetrou saca 6.3 por partido

78%Over 3.5@1.27

65%Over 4.5@1.55

50%Over 5.5@2.01

⏱️ First half

47% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.22

70%Goal in the 1st half@1.42

34%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.90

75%Goal in the 2st half@1.33

⚽ Goals per team

44%Asteras Tripolis +1.5@2.28

31%Kalamata +1.5@3.24

24%Asteras Tripolis to win to nil@4.22

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

0.83Expected goals (xG)0.29

1Shots on target3

2Saves0

3Offsides2

8Shots10

5Yellow cards2

6Corners3

16Fouls12

0Red cards0

52Possession %48

Goals in the last 10 matches

Asteras Tripolis · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score2.7goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Kalamata · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score3.4goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Asteras TripolisKalamata

0.9Goals scored per match1.6

1.9Goals conceded per match2.0

78%Matches with over 1.5 goals89%

56%Matches with over 2.5 goals56%

67%Both teams to score67%

11%Clean sheet0%

33%Matches without scoring33%

3.7Corners won per match2.6

1.8Yellow cards per match3.1

Asteras Tripolis: 9 matches · Kalamata: 9 matches (all competitions with data).

Asteras Tripolis at home · Kalamata away

Asteras Tripolis at home

1G2E2P

DWDLL

Kalamata away

1G1E2P

LWDL

When do they score and concede?

Asteras Tripolis · goals by minute in 9 matches scored conceded

Kalamata · goals by minute in 9 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Asteras Tripolis

Scores first in 1 of 8 matches and wins 1 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 2.

Kalamata

Scores first in 4 of 9 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 2.

Players in form

Asteras Tripolis

K. Ketu · 2 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches

A. Mendez · 0 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches

Kalamata

David Kurminowski · 5 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

K. Vargas · 2 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches

J. Alonso · 0 goles, 2 assists in 4 matches

Standings

Super League 1 standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	10	+17	27
2	Olympiakos Piraeus	10	+11	23
3	AEK Athens FC	9	+17	20
4	PAOK	10	+6	19
5	Aris Thessalonikis	10	-1	19
6	OFI	10	+2	17
7	Kifisia	10	0	14
8	Kalamata	10	-4	12
9	Iraklis 1908	10	-3	10
10	Panetolikos	10	-12	9
11	Asteras Tripolis	10	-9	7
12	Atromitos	9	-3	6
13	Levadiakos	10	-9	6
14	Volos NFC	10	-12	0

More stats

Referee: Anastasios Papapetrou

16 matches · 6.0 yellows and 0.33 reds per match · 0.00 penalties

Half-time

Asteras Tripolis: 6 days since last match · Kalamata: 5 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 17:30 UTC.