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Aruba vs Martinique prediction

International · Nations League Concacaf

ArubaLWWWL

17:00Thu Nov 12

MartiniqueDWLLL

52%29%18%

Probabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo

Thursday, November 12 · 17:00 (Peru time)

🎯 Model pick

Aruba to score

84%

Partial data

Aruba scored in 4 of 4 matches this season
Aruba average 2.0 goals per match
Martinique concede 1.8 goals per match

⚡ Summary

52%Aruba to win@1.92 55%Over 2.5 goals@1.82 58%Both teams to score@1.72 54%Corners +9.5 (10.3)@1.8625%Cards +4.5 (3.3)@4.071-1Most likely score · 13%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

📝 Preview

Aruba and Martinique meet in the Nations League Concacaf.

The PickMania model gives Aruba a 52% chance of winning, 29% for the draw and 18% for Martinique.

3.0 total goals are expected (1.9 from Aruba and 1.1 from Martinique): over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance and both teams to score 58%.

The most likely score is 1-1.

Probabilities

52%Aruba to win@1.92

29%Draw@3.40

18%Martinique to win@5.42

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score58%

Aruba or draw82%

Martinique or draw48%

Aruba to score84%

Martinique to score66%

Most likely scores

1-113%2-19%1-09%0-08%2-08%

Expected goals per the model: Aruba 1.88 · Martinique 1.11

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.99.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.3 in total · Aruba 5.5 · Martinique 4.8

64%Over 8.5@1.56

54%Over 9.5@1.86

44%Over 10.5@2.28

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 3.3

40%Over 3.5@2.50

25%Over 4.5@4.07

14%Over 5.5@7.15

⏱️ First half

44% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.32

73%Goal in the 1st half@1.36

38%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.62

81%Goal in the 2st half@1.23

⚽ Goals per team

56%Aruba +1.5@1.78

30%Martinique +1.5@3.28

25%Aruba to win to nil@3.93

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Goals in the last 10 matches

Aruba · last 5 matches

3/5+2.5 goals2/5both teams to score3.4goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Martinique · last 5 matches

3/5+2.5 goals4/5both teams to score2.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

ArubaMartinique

2.0Goals scored per match1.3

1.3Goals conceded per match1.8

75%Matches with over 1.5 goals100%

50%Matches with over 2.5 goals75%

50%Both teams to score100%

50%Clean sheet0%

0%Matches without scoring0%

7.3Corners won per match6.0

1.3Yellow cards per match2.0

Aruba: 4 matches · Martinique: 4 matches (all competitions with data).

Aruba at home · Martinique away

Aruba at home

2G0E0P

Martinique away

0G0E2P

When do they score and concede?

Aruba · goals by minute in 4 matches scored conceded

Martinique · goals by minute in 4 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Aruba

Scores first in 3 of 4 matches and wins 3 of them.

Concedes first in 1 and avoids defeat in 0.

Martinique

Scores first in 0 of 4 matches and wins 0 of them.

Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 2.

Players in form

Aruba

Carolith Fermina · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

J. Figaroa · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches

J. Peterson · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

Martinique

Janis Antiste · 2 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches

J. Mexique · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

B. Moltenis · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

More stats

Half-time

Aruba: 36 days since last match · Martinique: 38 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 08:47 UTC.