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Argentina vs Uruguay prediction
International · International friendlies
Argentina
UruguayProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Friday, November 13 · 18:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Alberto J. Armando
Over 1.5 goals
84%- 2+ goals in 7 of 7 Argentina matches
- Also in 4 of 5 Uruguay matches
- Picky expects 3.4 goals (2.2 - 1.1)
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
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Argentina and Uruguay meet in the International friendlies.
The PickMania model gives Argentina a 61% chance of winning, 21% for the draw and 18% for Uruguay.
3.4 total goals are expected (2.2 from Argentina and 1.1 from Uruguay): over 2.5 goals has a 64% chance and both teams to score 61%.
The most likely score is 1-1.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Argentina 2.22 · Uruguay 1.15
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.37.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 8.2 in total · Argentina 5.7 · Uruguay 2.5
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 2.8
⏱️ First half
47% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.59
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Argentina: 7 matches · Uruguay: 5 matches (all competitions with data).
Argentina at home · Uruguay away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 7 of 7 matches and wins 7 of them.
Concedes first in 0 and avoids defeat in 0.
Scores first in 2 of 4 matches and wins 2 of them.
Concedes first in 2 and avoids defeat in 1.
Players in form
Lautaro Martínez · 3 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches
Nico Paz · 3 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches
Lionel Messi · 2 goles, 2 assists in 2 matches
Darwin Núñez · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Maximiliano Araújo · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Giorgian de Arrascaeta · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches
Head to head
9 matches · 1.6 goals per match
| 2025-03-21 | Uruguay 0-1 Argentina | World Cup - Qualification South America |
| 2023-11-17 | Argentina 0-2 Uruguay | World Cup - Qualification South America |
| 2021-11-12 | Uruguay 0-1 Argentina | World Cup - Qualification South America |
| 2021-10-10 | Argentina 3-0 Uruguay | World Cup - Qualification South America |
| 2021-06-19 | Argentina 1-0 Uruguay | Copa America |
| 2019-11-18 | Argentina 2-2 Uruguay | Friendlies |
More stats
Argentina: 38 days since last match · Uruguay: 38 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC.