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Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros prediction

Colombia · Primera A

Alianza Valledupar#17 · 17 ptsLLWWD

1 - 2Full time

Llaneros#14 · 22 ptsWLLWL

43%33%23%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ J. Castilla 16'⚽ M. Martinez 21'⚽ Jhon Vasquez 35' (p)

Sunday, November 8 · 20:15 (Peru time) · Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau · Referee: Bismark Elias Santiago Pitalua

🎯 Model pick

Alianza Valledupar or draw

77%

Full data

At home, Alianza Valledupar are 4W 8D 6L this season
Llaneros in poor form: 3 defeats in their last 5
Head to head: 2W 1D 0L for Alianza Valledupar

⚡ Summary

43%Alianza Valledupar to win@2.30 41%Over 2.5 goals@2.42 50%Both teams to score@2.01 49%Corners +9.5 (9.8)@2.0475%Cards +4.5 (6.7)@1.331-1Most likely score · 15%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+3🟨 J. E. Perez BalcazarAlianza Valledupar

84'🟨 M. SierraLlaneros

79'🔁 Sub: N. Ospina · K. RinconLlaneros

79'🔁 Sub: Jhon Vasquez · J. MedrandaLlaneros

74'🔁 Sub: J. Castillo · Y. RosalesAlianza Valledupar

74'🔁 Sub: F. Pardo · L. PalaciosAlianza Valledupar

70'🟨 J. CastilloAlianza Valledupar

70'🔁 Sub: J. Contreras · C. CortesLlaneros

64'🔁 Sub: J. Ramirez · B. ChuryLlaneros

64'🔁 Sub: J. Castilla · Kelvin OsorioLlaneros

57'🔁 Sub: E. W. Meza Mercado · J. E. Perez BalcazarAlianza Valledupar

46'🔁 Sub: S. Quinones · B. ViafaraAlianza Valledupar

41'🟨 D. QuinteroLlaneros

35'⚽ Jhon Vasquez (pen.)Llaneros

34'🔁 Sub: M. Martinez · C. VergaraAlianza Valledupar

21'⚽ M. Martinez assist F. PardoAlianza Valledupar

16'⚽ J. Castilla assist J. Escobar SalcedoLlaneros

5'🟨 J. PertuzLlaneros

Win probability minute by minute

Alianza ValleduparDrawLlaneros

At kick-off43%33%23%Full time0%0%100%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

43%Alianza Valledupar to win@2.30

33%Draw@3.01

23%Llaneros to win@4.27

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score50%

Alianza Valledupar or draw77%

Llaneros or draw57%

Alianza Valledupar to score75%

Llaneros to score62%

Most likely scores

1-115%0-012%1-011%2-08%2-18%

Expected goals per the model: Alianza Valledupar 1.39 · Llaneros 0.97

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.36.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.8 in total · Alianza Valledupar 4.5 · Llaneros 5.3

59%Over 8.5@1.68

49%Over 9.5@2.04

39%Over 10.5@2.55

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 6.7

86%Over 3.5@1.16

75%Over 4.5@1.33

62%Over 5.5@1.61

⏱️ First half

53% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.24

71%Goal in the 1st half@1.41

35%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.83

67%Goal in the 2st half@1.49

⚽ Goals per team

40%Alianza Valledupar +1.5@2.47

25%Llaneros +1.5@3.95

26%Alianza Valledupar to win to nil@3.89

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

3Shots on target6

16Shots13

9Fouls9

8Corners5

2Offsides2

58Possession %42

1Yellow cards3

4Saves2

1.32Expected goals (xG)1.35

Goals in the last 10 matches

Alianza Valledupar · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score2.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Llaneros · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.7goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Alianza ValleduparLlaneros

0.8Goals scored per match1.0

1.6Goals conceded per match1.2

64%Matches with over 1.5 goals72%

44%Matches with over 2.5 goals33%

50%Both teams to score50%

22%Clean sheet28%

36%Matches without scoring28%

4.1Corners won per match5.3

3.2Yellow cards per match3.0

Alianza Valledupar: 36 matches · Llaneros: 36 matches (all competitions with data).

Alianza Valledupar at home · Llaneros away

Alianza Valledupar at home

4G8E6P

WDLWL

Llaneros away

4G5E9P

LLLLL

When do they score and concede?

Alianza Valledupar · goals by minute in 31 matches scored conceded

Llaneros · goals by minute in 29 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Alianza Valledupar

Scores first in 13 of 28 matches and wins 7 of them.

Concedes first in 15 and avoids defeat in 5.

Llaneros

Scores first in 12 of 27 matches and wins 7 of them.

Concedes first in 15 and avoids defeat in 6.

Players in form

Alianza Valledupar

M. Martinez · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

I. Alba · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

J. Figueroa · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

Llaneros

J. Escobar Salcedo · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

J. Ramirez · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

N. Ospina · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

2Alianza Valledupar to win

1Draws

0Llaneros to win

3 matches · 1.7 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-04-26	Llaneros 0-0 Alianza Valledupar	Primera A
2025-09-27	Alianza Valledupar 3-1 Llaneros	Primera A
2025-04-11	Llaneros 0-1 Alianza Valledupar	Primera A

Standings

Primera A standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Atlético Nacional	19	+20	40
2	Junior	19	+7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	+4	34
4	América de Cali	19	+10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	+9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	+10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	+7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	+4	27
10	Millonarios	19	+8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	+2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	+6	23
14	Llaneros	19	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	-14	17
18	Chico	19	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	-17	10

More stats

Referee: S. Bismark

2 matches · 7.5 yellows and 0.50 reds per match · 0.00 penalties

Half-time

Alianza Valledupar: 7 days since last match · Llaneros: 8 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-09 03:50 UTC.