Home › Argentina · Liga Profesional › Aldosivi vs River Plate

Aldosivi vs River Plate prediction

Argentina · Liga Profesional

Aldosivi#14 · 8 ptsLWLLL

0 - 2Full time

River Plate#2 · 29 ptsLWWDW

13%21%66%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Lucas Beltran 76' (p)⚽ Ángel Correa 90'

Thursday, November 5 · 13:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Jose Maria Minella

🎯 Model pick

River Plate to score

82%

Full data

River Plate scored in 32 of 43 matches this season
River Plate average 1.3 goals per match
Aldosivi concede 1.4 goals per match

⚡ Summary

66%River Plate to win@1.50 41%Over 2.5 goals@2.44 35%Both teams to score@2.86 43%Corners +9.5 (9.2)@2.3446%Cards +4.5 (4.6)@2.160-1Most likely score · 18%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+4🔁 Sub: Tobías Andrada · Mauro ArambarriRiver Plate

90'+1⚽ Ángel Correa assist Francisco OrtegaRiver Plate

86'🔁 Sub: Brian Cufre · Federico LaurelliAldosivi

86'🔁 Sub: Santiago Moya · Felipe AnsoAldosivi

86'🔁 Sub: Lucas Castro · Elías LópezAldosivi

81'🔁 Sub: Lucas Beltran · Rafael BorréRiver Plate

81'🔁 Sub: Santiago Joaquín Espíndola · Lucas SilvaRiver Plate

81'🔁 Sub: Marcos Acuña · Francisco OrtegaRiver Plate

77'🔁 Sub: Nicolás Gaitán · Bautista DadínAldosivi

76'⚽ Lucas Beltran (pen.)River Plate

73'📺 Sebastián DriussiRiver Plate

71'🟨 Andres VombergarAldosivi

71'🟨 Javier Esteban SanguinettiAldosivi

68'🟨 Nicolás GaitánAldosivi

66'🔁 Sub: Tomás Ezequiel Galván · Sebastián DriussiRiver Plate

59'📺 Santiago MoyaAldosivi

58'🟨 Santiago Joaquín EspíndolaRiver Plate

33'🟨 Santiago MoyaAldosivi

16'🟨 Lucas CastroAldosivi

14'🟨 Agustín PalavecinoAldosivi

Win probability minute by minute

AldosiviDrawRiver Plate

At kick-off13%21%66%Full time0%0%100%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

13%Aldosivi to win@7.72

21%Draw@4.86

66%River Plate to win@1.50

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score35%

Aldosivi or draw34%

River Plate or draw87%

Aldosivi to score43%

River Plate to score82%

Most likely scores

0-118%0-215%0-010%1-19%0-39%

Expected goals per the model: Aldosivi 0.58 · River Plate 1.75

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.33.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.2 in total · Aldosivi 3.6 · River Plate 5.6

53%Over 8.5@1.88

43%Over 9.5@2.34

33%Over 10.5@3.01

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.6

63%Over 3.5@1.59

46%Over 4.5@2.16

32%Over 5.5@3.16

⏱️ First half

41% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 0.95

61%Goal in the 1st half@1.63

25%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@4.06

75%Goal in the 2st half@1.34

⚽ Goals per team

12%Aldosivi +1.5@8.67

52%River Plate +1.5@1.92

8%Aldosivi to win to nil@12.02

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

0.11Expected goals (xG)2.77

7Saves0

2Offsides1

2Shots23

5Yellow cards1

1Corners8

0Shots on target9

18Fouls4

0Red cards0

32Possession %68

Goals in the last 10 matches

Aldosivi · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score2.9goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

River Plate · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.5goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

AldosiviRiver Plate

0.7Goals scored per match1.3

1.4Goals conceded per match0.8

61%Matches with over 1.5 goals60%

35%Matches with over 2.5 goals33%

52%Both teams to score40%

23%Clean sheet40%

42%Matches without scoring26%

4.2Corners won per match5.5

2.4Yellow cards per match2.0

Aldosivi: 31 matches · River Plate: 43 matches (all competitions with data).

Aldosivi at home · River Plate away

Aldosivi at home

3G8E4P

WLWWL

River Plate away

9G5E5P

LWDWW

When do they score and concede?

Aldosivi · goals by minute in 17 matches scored conceded

River Plate · goals by minute in 27 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Aldosivi

Scores first in 10 of 16 matches and wins 3 of them.

Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 0.

River Plate

Scores first in 16 of 26 matches and wins 13 of them.

Concedes first in 10 and avoids defeat in 3.

Players in form

Aldosivi

Andres Vombergar · 3 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

L. Castro · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Felipe Anso · 0 goles, 1 assists in 3 matches

River Plate

A. Correa · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

T. Galvan · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

G. Montiel · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

1Aldosivi to win

1Draws

7River Plate to win

9 matches · 2.8 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-07-18	River Plate 1-3 Aldosivi	Copa Argentina
2026-04-26	River Plate 3-1 Aldosivi	Liga Profesional Argentina
2022-07-24	Aldosivi 0-3 River Plate	Liga Profesional Argentina
2021-08-27	River Plate 2-0 Aldosivi	Liga Profesional Argentina
2021-05-09	River Plate 4-1 Aldosivi	Liga Profesional Argentina
2019-11-02	Aldosivi 1-2 River Plate	Liga Profesional Argentina

Standings

Liga Profesional standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	+14	34
2	River Plate	16	+10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	+4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	+4	28
5	Belgrano Córdoba	16	+4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	0	26
7	Huracan	16	+4	22
8	Racing Club	16	+2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	0	21
10	Tigre	16	+3	20
11	Sarmiento Junín	16	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	-2	18
13	Atlético Tucumán	16	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	-19	5

More stats

Half-time

Aldosivi: 5 days since last match · River Plate: 4 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 00:20 UTC.