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Albania vs Finland prediction
International · UEFA Nations League
Albania
FinlandProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Thursday, November 12 · 14:45 (Peru time) · Arena Kombëtare · Referee: Joao Pinheiro
Albania or draw
71%- Asllani is on fire: 3 goals in his last 5 matches
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
📝 Preview
Albania and Finland meet in the UEFA Nations League.
The PickMania model gives Albania a 38% chance of winning, 34% for the draw and 29% for Finland.
2.3 total goals are expected (1.3 from Albania and 1.1 from Finland): over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance and both teams to score 46%.
The most likely score is 1-1.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Albania 1.26 · Finland 1.07
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.33.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.8 in total · Albania 5.2 · Finland 4.6
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.2
⏱️ First half
54% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.25
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Albania: 7 matches · Finland: 6 matches (all competitions with data).
Albania at home · Finland away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 4 of 7 matches and wins 3 of them.
Concedes first in 3 and avoids defeat in 0.
Scores first in 1 of 5 matches and wins 1 of them.
Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 1.
Players in form
Kristjan Asllani · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
R. Manaj · 2 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches
Anis Mehmeti · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
L. Walta · 4 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Joel Pohjanpalo · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Adrian Svanback · 1 gol, 2 assists in 4 matches
Head to head
1 matches · 3.0 goals per match
| 2026-10-03 | Finland 2-1 Albania | UEFA Nations League |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albania | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 2 | Belarus | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Finland | 4 | +7 | 7 |
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | -15 | 0 |
More stats
2 matches · 1.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.00 penalties
Albania: 37 days since last match · Finland: 37 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.