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Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin prediction

Colombia · Primera A

Águilas Doradas#12 · 26 ptsLWWLW

15:30Sat Nov 14

Independiente Medellin#11 · 26 ptsWWLLL

37%30%33%

Probability of each result according to the model

Saturday, November 14 · 15:30 (Peru time) · Estadio Cincuentenario

🎯 Model pick

Águilas Doradas to score

73%

Full data

Águilas Doradas scored in 27 of 37 matches this season
Independiente Medellin concede 1.3 goals per match
Independiente Medellin kept a clean sheet in only 10 of 48

⚡ Summary

37%Águilas Doradas to win@2.68 47%Over 2.5 goals@2.11 55%Both teams to score@1.82 44%Corners +9.5 (9.3)@2.2864%Cards +4.5 (5.8)@1.561-1Most likely score · 14%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

📝 Preview

Águilas Doradas and Independiente Medellin meet in the Primera A.

The PickMania model gives Águilas Doradas a 37% chance of winning, 30% for the draw and 33% for Independiente Medellin.

2.6 total goals are expected (1.4 from Águilas Doradas and 1.3 from Independiente Medellin): over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance and both teams to score 55%.

The most likely score is 1-1.

Probabilities

37%Águilas Doradas to win@2.68

30%Draw@3.36

33%Independiente Medellin to win@3.03

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score55%

Águilas Doradas or draw67%

Independiente Medellin or draw63%

Águilas Doradas to score73%

Independiente Medellin to score71%

Most likely scores

1-114%0-09%1-09%0-18%2-18%

Expected goals per the model: Águilas Doradas 1.35 · Independiente Medellin 1.26

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.61.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.3 in total · Águilas Doradas 4.4 · Independiente Medellin 4.9

54%Over 8.5@1.84

44%Over 9.5@2.28

34%Over 10.5@2.92

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 5.8

78%Over 3.5@1.28

64%Over 4.5@1.56

49%Over 5.5@2.02

⏱️ First half

42% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.09

66%Goal in the 1st half@1.51

30%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.36

78%Goal in the 2st half@1.28

⚽ Goals per team

39%Águilas Doradas +1.5@2.56

36%Independiente Medellin +1.5@2.79

20%Águilas Doradas to win to nil@5.08

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Goals in the last 10 matches

Águilas Doradas · last 10 matches

2/10+2.5 goals3/10both teams to score1.9goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Independiente Medellin · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score2.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Águilas DoradasIndependiente Medellin

1.1Goals scored per match1.4

1.2Goals conceded per match1.3

73%Matches with over 1.5 goals77%

43%Matches with over 2.5 goals60%

57%Both teams to score65%

19%Clean sheet21%

27%Matches without scoring19%

4.6Corners won per match5.2

2.7Yellow cards per match2.8

Águilas Doradas: 37 matches · Independiente Medellin: 48 matches (all competitions with data).

Águilas Doradas at home · Independiente Medellin away

Águilas Doradas at home

8G6E4P

WWWDD

Independiente Medellin away

9G5E10P

WLLWL

When do they score and concede?

Águilas Doradas · goals by minute in 35 matches scored conceded

Independiente Medellin · goals by minute in 45 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Águilas Doradas

Scores first in 17 of 34 matches and wins 11 of them.

Concedes first in 17 and avoids defeat in 8.

Independiente Medellin

Scores first in 20 of 43 matches and wins 15 of them.

Concedes first in 23 and avoids defeat in 10.

Players in form

Águilas Doradas

A. Ricaurte · 2 goals, 2 assists in 5 matches

A. Mosquera · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

M. Ramirez · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Independiente Medellin

J. Martinez · 1 gol, 1 assists in 2 matches

D. Catano · 1 gol, 1 assists in 3 matches

J. Medina · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Head to head

4Águilas Doradas to win

3Draws

3Independiente Medellin to win

10 matches · 2.1 goals per match

Recent meetings
Fecha	Local		Visitante	Competition
03-05-2026	Independiente Medellin	1-2	Águilas Doradas	Primera A
08-10-2025	Águilas Doradas	2-1	Independiente Medellin	Primera A
29-03-2025	Independiente Medellin	0-0	Águilas Doradas	Primera A
14-09-2024	Águilas Doradas	1-1	Independiente Medellin	Primera A
03-03-2024	Independiente Medellin	1-0	Águilas Doradas	Primera A
25-08-2023	Águilas Doradas	1-1	Independiente Medellin	Primera A

Standings · Apertura

Independiente Medellin es 11.º con 26 pts y Águilas Doradas 12.º con 26: empatados a puntos.

Primera A standings
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts	Form
1	Atlético Nacional	19	13	1	5	35:15	+20	40	WWWDW
2	Junior	19	11	2	6	31:24	+7	35	DWDLW
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	29:25	+4	34	LWLWL
4	América de Cali	19	10	3	6	25:15	+10	33	DWWDD
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	31:22	+9	33	WDDWW
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	27:17	+10	31	LLLWW
7	Santa Fe	19	7	8	4	29:22	+7	29	WWLLW
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	7	7	5	26:26	0	28	DWLWL
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	20:16	+4	27	DWDWD
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	31:23	+8	26	DWDDL
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26:24	+2	26	LLLWW
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	20:25	-5	26	WLWWL
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	26:20	+6	23	LLWDW
14	Llaneros	19	4	10	5	17:20	-3	22	WLLWW
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	22:27	-5	22	LDLLL
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	20:33	-13	18	LWLLL
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	13:27	-14	17	WWLLL
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	15:32	-17	17	LWDLW
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	22:35	-13	16	WLLWL
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	15:32	-17	10	WDWLL