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Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin prediction

Colombia · Primera A

Águilas Doradas#12 · 26 ptsLWWLW

16:00Thu Nov 12

Independiente Medellin#11 · 26 ptsWWLLL

40%34%26%

Probabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo

Thursday, November 12 · 16:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Cincuentenario

🎯 Model pick

Águilas Doradas to score

75%

Full data

Águilas Doradas scored in 27 of 37 matches this season
Independiente Medellin concede 1.3 goals per match
Independiente Medellin kept a clean sheet in only 10 of 48

⚡ Summary

40%Águilas Doradas to win@2.51 46%Over 2.5 goals@2.18 55%Both teams to score@1.82 44%Corners +9.5 (9.3)@2.2864%Cards +4.5 (5.8)@1.561-1Most likely score · 15%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

📝 Preview

Águilas Doradas and Independiente Medellin meet in the Primera A.

The PickMania model gives Águilas Doradas a 40% chance of winning, 34% for the draw and 26% for Independiente Medellin.

2.6 total goals are expected (1.4 from Águilas Doradas and 1.1 from Independiente Medellin): over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance and both teams to score 55%.

The most likely score is 1-1.

Probabilities

40%Águilas Doradas to win@2.51

34%Draw@2.97

26%Independiente Medellin to win@3.78

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score55%

Águilas Doradas or draw74%

Independiente Medellin or draw60%

Águilas Doradas to score75%

Independiente Medellin to score68%

Most likely scores

1-115%0-011%1-09%2-18%2-07%

Expected goals per the model: Águilas Doradas 1.42 · Independiente Medellin 1.14

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.56.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.3 in total · Águilas Doradas 4.4 · Independiente Medellin 4.9

54%Over 8.5@1.84

44%Over 9.5@2.28

34%Over 10.5@2.92

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 5.8

78%Over 3.5@1.28

64%Over 4.5@1.56

49%Over 5.5@2.02

⏱️ First half

42% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.07

66%Goal in the 1st half@1.52

29%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.45

77%Goal in the 2st half@1.29

⚽ Goals per team

42%Águilas Doradas +1.5@2.41

32%Independiente Medellin +1.5@3.17

22%Águilas Doradas to win to nil@4.65

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Goals in the last 10 matches

Águilas Doradas · last 10 matches

2/10+2.5 goals3/10both teams to score1.9goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Independiente Medellin · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score2.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Águilas DoradasIndependiente Medellin

1.1Goals scored per match1.4

1.2Goals conceded per match1.3

73%Matches with over 1.5 goals77%

43%Matches with over 2.5 goals60%

57%Both teams to score65%

19%Clean sheet21%

27%Matches without scoring19%

4.6Corners won per match5.2

2.7Yellow cards per match2.8

Águilas Doradas: 37 matches · Independiente Medellin: 48 matches (all competitions with data).

Águilas Doradas at home · Independiente Medellin away

Águilas Doradas at home

8G6E4P

WWWDD

Independiente Medellin away

9G5E10P

WLLWL

When do they score and concede?

Águilas Doradas · goals by minute in 35 matches scored conceded

Independiente Medellin · goals by minute in 45 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Águilas Doradas

Scores first in 17 of 34 matches and wins 11 of them.

Concedes first in 17 and avoids defeat in 8.

Independiente Medellin

Scores first in 20 of 43 matches and wins 15 of them.

Concedes first in 23 and avoids defeat in 10.

Players in form

Águilas Doradas

A. Ricaurte · 2 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

A. Mosquera · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

M. Ramirez · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Independiente Medellin

J. Martinez · 1 gol, 1 assists in 2 matches

D. Catano · 1 gol, 1 assists in 3 matches

J. Medina · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Head to head

4Águilas Doradas to win

3Draws

3Independiente Medellin to win

10 matches · 2.1 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-05-03	Independiente Medellin 1-2 Águilas Doradas	Primera A
2025-10-08	Águilas Doradas 2-1 Independiente Medellin	Primera A
2025-03-30	Independiente Medellin 0-0 Águilas Doradas	Primera A
2024-09-15	Águilas Doradas 1-1 Independiente Medellin	Primera A
2024-03-03	Independiente Medellin 1-0 Águilas Doradas	Primera A
2023-08-26	Águilas Doradas 1-1 Independiente Medellin	Primera A

Standings

Primera A standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Atlético Nacional	19	+20	40
2	Junior	19	+7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	+4	34
4	América de Cali	19	+10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	+9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	+10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	+7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	+4	27
10	Millonarios	19	+8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	+2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	+6	23
14	Llaneros	19	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	-14	17
18	Chico	19	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	-17	10

More stats

Half-time

Águilas Doradas: 4 days since last match · Independiente Medellin: 5 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.