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ADT vs Sporting Cristal prediction

Peru · Liga 1

ADT#15 · 32 ptsDWDLD

1 - 1Full time

Sporting Cristal#5 · 51 ptsWWLWW

27%32%41%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Hernán Barcos 45'⚽ Horacio Benincasa 90'

Saturday, 7 November · 13:00 (Peru time) · Referee: Jordi Espinoza

🎯 Model pick

Sporting Cristal to score

78%

Full data

Sporting Cristal scored in 37 of 44 matches this season
Sporting Cristal average 1.6 goals per match
ADT concede 1.5 goals per match

⚡ Summary

41%Sporting Cristal to win@2.46 52%Over 2.5 goals@1.93 59%Both teams to score@1.69 48%Corners +9.5 (9.7)@2.0861%Cards +4.5 (5.5)@1.651-1Most likely score · 15%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+4⚽ Horacio Benincasa assist Alejandro RamosADT

88'🔁 Sub: Leonardo Diaz Laffore · GabrielSporting Cristal

88'🔁 Sub: Yoshimar Yotún · Juan Manuel CuestaSporting Cristal

88'🟨 Victor CedronADT

88'🔁 Sub: Angel Ojeda · Aylton MazzoADT

84'🟨 Juan GonzalezSporting Cristal

79'🟨 Leonardo Diaz LafforeSporting Cristal

77'🔁 Sub: Joao Rojas · Jhojan GarcilazoADT

75'🔁 Sub: Santiago González · Martín TávaraSporting Cristal

72'🔁 Sub: Hernán Barcos · Michael HoyosSporting Cristal

72'🔁 Sub: Leandro Sosa · Catriel CabellosSporting Cristal

64'🔁 Sub: Said Peralta · Victor CedronADT

45'+2⚽ Hernán Barcos assist Santiago GonzálezSporting Cristal

42'🟨 Luis AbramSporting Cristal

33'🟨 Horacio BenincasaADT

Win probability minute by minute

ADTDrawSporting Cristal

At kick-off27%32%41%Full time0%0%100%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

27%ADT to win@3.64

32%Draw@3.14

41%Sporting Cristal to win@2.46

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score59%

ADT or draw59%

Sporting Cristal or draw73%

ADT to score71%

Sporting Cristal to score78%

Most likely scores

1-115%0-09%1-28%0-18%2-27%

Expected goals per the model: ADT 1.26 · Sporting Cristal 1.55

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.81.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.7 in total · ADT 4.5 · Sporting Cristal 5.1

58%Over 8.5@1.71

48%Over 9.5@2.08

38%Over 10.5@2.61

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 5.5 · el árbitro Jordi Espinoza saca 5.7 por partido

75%Over 3.5@1.33

61%Over 4.5@1.65

46%Over 5.5@2.19

⏱️ First half

43% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.21

70%Goal in the 1st half@1.43

34%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.94

80%Goal in the 2st half@1.25

⚽ Goals per team

36%ADT +1.5@2.79

46%Sporting Cristal +1.5@2.18

13%ADT to win to nil@7.73

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

0.42Expected goals (xG)0.39

5Shots on target4

3Saves4

8Shots9

2Yellow cards3

5Corners6

0Offsides1

16Fouls11

0Red cards0

48Possession %52

Goals in the last 10 matches

ADT · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score2.5goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Sporting Cristal · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score3.6goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

ADTSporting Cristal

1.1Goals scored per match1.6

1.5Goals conceded per match1.4

75%Matches with over 1.5 goals80%

47%Matches with over 2.5 goals61%

53%Both teams to score61%

25%Clean sheet27%

28%Matches without scoring16%

4.3Corners won per match5.5

2.7Yellow cards per match2.1

ADT: 32 matches · Sporting Cristal: 44 matches (all competitions with data).

ADT at home · Sporting Cristal away

ADT at home

6G4E6P

WDWLD

Sporting Cristal away

4G4E14P

LWWLL

When do they score and concede?

ADT · goals by minute in 23 matches scored conceded

Sporting Cristal · goals by minute in 31 matches scored conceded

The first goal

ADT

Scores first in 8 of 22 matches and wins 4 of them.

Concedes first in 14 and avoids defeat in 5.

Sporting Cristal

Scores first in 17 of 30 matches and wins 13 of them.

Concedes first in 13 and avoids defeat in 2.

Players in form

ADT

Juan lucumi · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Aldair Rodríguez · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches

Said Peralta · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

Sporting Cristal

Luis Iberico · 5 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Hernán Barcos · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Martín Távara · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

2ADT to win

2Draws

6Sporting Cristal to win

10 matches · 3.7 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-10-01	Sporting Cristal 5-0 ADT	Copa De La Liga
2026-09-27	ADT 0-1 Sporting Cristal	Copa De La Liga
2026-05-24	Sporting Cristal 2-1 ADT	Primera División
2025-10-04	ADT 3-2 Sporting Cristal	Primera División
2025-05-17	Sporting Cristal 2-1 ADT	Primera División
2024-07-12	ADT 3-1 Sporting Cristal	Primera División

Standings

Liga 1 standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	33	+30	69
2	Universitario	33	+20	61
3	FBC Melgar	33	+18	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	33	+15	55
5	Sporting Cristal	33	+15	51
6	Cusco	33	-1	51
7	Cienciano	33	+8	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	-1	50
9	Alianza Atlético	33	+1	49
10	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	33	-12	48
11	Sport Boys	33	+2	46
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	-11	41
13	Comerciantes Unidos	33	-3	37
14	Atlético Grau	33	-9	37
15	ADT	33	-12	32
16	FC Cajamarca	33	-19	31
17	UCV Moquegua	33	-21	30
18	UTC Cajamarca	33	-20	19

More stats

Referee: Jordi Espinoza

25 matches · 5.3 yellows and 0.40 reds per match · 0.40 penalties

Half-time

ADT: 3 days since last match · Sporting Cristal: 4 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 20:30 UTC.