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Aarhus vs AC Horsens prediction

Denmark · Superliga

Aarhus#8 · 15 ptsDLWDD

2 - 0Full time

AC Horsens#7 · 16 ptsLWDDD

56%26%18%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Jacob Andersen 53'⚽ Stefen Tchamche 87'

Sunday, November 8 · 08:00 (Peru time) · Vejlby Stadion · Referee: Michael Tykgaard

🎯 Model pick

Aarhus or draw

82%

Partial data

Aarhus unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 (D L W D D)
At home, Aarhus are 3W 5D 3L this season
Head to head: 7W 1D 2L for Aarhus

⚡ Summary

56%Aarhus to win@1.77 59%Over 2.5 goals@1.69 59%Both teams to score@1.69 54%Corners +9.5 (10.3)@1.8438%Cards +4.5 (4.0)@2.641-1Most likely score · 12%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+3🔁 Sub: Magnus Knudsen · Jens JonssonAarhus

90'+3🔁 Sub: Jacob Andersen · Rasmus CarstensenAarhus

88'🟨 Jakob Bonde JensenAC Horsens

87'⚽ Stefen Tchamche assist Jacob AndersenAarhus

87'🔁 Sub: Ivan Milićević · Julius KörkköAC Horsens

87'🔁 Sub: Adam Herdonsson · Fallou SeneAC Horsens

78'🔁 Sub: Callum McCowatt · Stefen TchamcheAarhus

75'🟨 Kelvin EhibhatiomhanAC Horsens

74'🔁 Sub: Adrian Justinussen · Yamirou OuorouAC Horsens

74'🔁 Sub: Karlo Lusavec · Jimi TauriainenAC Horsens

69'🔁 Sub: James Bogere · Sebastian JorgensenAarhus

69'🔁 Sub: Frederik Emmery · Gift LinksAarhus

53'⚽ Jacob Andersen assist Callum McCowattAarhus

45'🔁 Sub: John Batigi · Kingsley BimpongAC Horsens

26'🟨 Adam HerdonssonAC Horsens

Win probability minute by minute

AarhusDrawAC Horsens

At kick-off56%26%18%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

56%Aarhus to win@1.77

26%Draw@3.83

18%AC Horsens to win@5.69

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score59%

Aarhus or draw82%

AC Horsens or draw44%

Aarhus to score86%

AC Horsens to score67%

Most likely scores

1-112%2-19%2-09%1-08%0-06%

Expected goals per the model: Aarhus 2.03 · AC Horsens 1.10

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.13.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.3 in total · Aarhus 6.0 · AC Horsens 4.3

64%Over 8.5@1.55

54%Over 9.5@1.84

44%Over 10.5@2.25

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.0

55%Over 3.5@1.83

38%Over 4.5@2.64

24%Over 5.5@4.13

⏱️ First half

44% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.37

74%Goal in the 1st half@1.34

40%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.52

83%Goal in the 2st half@1.21

⚽ Goals per team

60%Aarhus +1.5@1.66

30%AC Horsens +1.5@3.32

27%Aarhus to win to nil@3.70

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

2.17Expected goals (xG)0.60

6Shots on target3

3Saves4

16Shots12

5Corners3

0Offsides1

0Yellow cards3

10Fouls23

0Red cards0

59Possession %41

Goals in the last 10 matches

Aarhus · last 10 matches

3/10+2.5 goals4/10both teams to score2.1goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

AC Horsens · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score3.6goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

AarhusAC Horsens

1.2Goals scored per match1.8

1.7Goals conceded per match1.6

91%Matches with over 1.5 goals85%

64%Matches with over 2.5 goals62%

64%Both teams to score69%

14%Clean sheet8%

27%Matches without scoring31%

5.2Corners won per match3.0

1.7Yellow cards per match2.2

Aarhus: 22 matches · AC Horsens: 13 matches (all competitions with data).

Aarhus at home · AC Horsens away

Aarhus at home

3G5E3P

DWDWD

AC Horsens away

2G1E3P

LDLWW

When do they score and concede?

Aarhus · goals by minute in 22 matches scored conceded

AC Horsens · goals by minute in 13 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Aarhus

Scores first in 6 of 21 matches and wins 3 of them.

Concedes first in 15 and avoids defeat in 5.

AC Horsens

Scores first in 3 of 12 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 9 and avoids defeat in 4.

Players in form

Aarhus

Frederik Emmery · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

James Bogere · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Janni Serra · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches

AC Horsens

Julius Madsen · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

Alagie Saine · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

Jakob Bonde Jensen · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

7Aarhus to win

1Draws

2AC Horsens to win

10 matches · 2.5 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-09-20	AC Horsens 2-2 Aarhus	Superliga
2026-07-15	Aarhus 2-0 AC Horsens	Friendlies Clubs
2025-07-02	Aarhus 2-1 AC Horsens	Friendlies Clubs
2024-06-30	AC Horsens 0-3 Aarhus	Friendlies Clubs
2023-07-08	Aarhus 2-1 AC Horsens	Friendlies Clubs
2023-03-03	Aarhus 2-0 AC Horsens	Superliga

Standings

Superliga standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	FC Copenhagen	14	+17	32
2	FC Midtjylland	14	+12	32
3	Viborg	14	+9	26
4	FC Nordsjaelland	14	+8	23
5	Brondby	14	+2	22
6	Odense	14	-3	17
7	AC Horsens	14	0	16
8	Aarhus	14	-2	15
9	Silkeborg	14	-6	15
10	Lyngby	14	-10	11
11	Randers FC	14	-13	11
12	Sonderjyske	14	-14	9

More stats

Referee: Michael Tykgaard

1 matches · 3.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.00 penalties

Half-time

Aarhus: 2 days since last match · AC Horsens: 7 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 15:30 UTC.