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1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli prediction

Germany · 2. Bundesliga

1. FC Magdeburg#4 · 20 ptsDLWLW

4 - 1Full time

FC St. Pauli#9 · 12 ptsLDDWD

39%28%33%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Mateusz Zukowski 27'⚽ Garcia MacNulty 48'⚽ Eric Smith 58'🟥 Louis Oppie 82'⚽ Herbert Bockhorn 89'⚽ Roko Simic 90'

Sunday, November 8 · 07:30 (Peru time) · Avnet Arena · Referee: Tom Bauer

🎯 Model pick

Over 1.5 goals

80%

Partial data

2+ goals in 12 of 12 1. FC Magdeburg matches
Also in 9 of 11 FC St. Pauli matches
Head to head: 2.9 goals per match

⚡ Summary

39%1. FC Magdeburg to win@2.54 57%Over 2.5 goals@1.77 63%Both teams to score@1.59 44%Corners +9.5 (9.3)@2.2549%Cards +4.5 (4.7)@2.061-1Most likely score · 13%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+6🟨 Samuel KleinFC St. Pauli

90'+1⚽ Roko Simic assist Pierre Nadjombe1. FC Magdeburg

89'⚽ Herbert Bockhorn assist Luka Hyryläinen1. FC Magdeburg

88'🔁 Sub: Mateusz Zukowski · Roko Simic1. FC Magdeburg

88'🔁 Sub: Emmanuel Iyoha · Richmond Tachie1. FC Magdeburg

88'🔁 Sub: Joel Chima Fujita · Ricky-Jade JonesFC St. Pauli

85'🔁 Sub: Branimir Hrgota · Taichi HaraFC St. Pauli

82'🟥 Louis OppieFC St. Pauli

78'🔁 Sub: Alexander Nollenberger · Herbert Bockhorn1. FC Magdeburg

65'🟨 Eric SmithFC St. Pauli

61'🔁 Sub: Tobias Müller · Daniel Heber1. FC Magdeburg

61'🔁 Sub: Abdoulie Ceesay · Martijn KaarsFC St. Pauli

61'🟨 Garcia MacNulty1. FC Magdeburg

60'🟨 Joel Chima FujitaFC St. Pauli

58'⚽ Eric Smith assist Branimir HrgotaFC St. Pauli

57'🟨 Tobias Müller1. FC Magdeburg

56'🟨 David NemethFC St. Pauli

48'⚽ Garcia MacNulty assist Felipe Chávez1. FC Magdeburg

45'🔁 Sub: Leon Mergner · Felipe Chávez1. FC Magdeburg

45'🔁 Sub: Mathias Rasmussen · Youssoupha NiangFC St. Pauli

45'🔁 Sub: Connor Metcalfe · Samuel KleinFC St. Pauli

27'⚽ Mateusz Zukowski assist Torben Müsel1. FC Magdeburg

Win probability minute by minute

1. FC MagdeburgDrawFC St. Pauli

At kick-off39%28%33%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

39%1. FC Magdeburg to win@2.54

28%Draw@3.57

33%FC St. Pauli to win@3.06

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score63%

1. FC Magdeburg or draw67%

FC St. Pauli or draw61%

1. FC Magdeburg to score79%

FC St. Pauli to score75%

Most likely scores

1-113%2-18%1-27%1-07%0-07%

Expected goals per the model: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.58 · FC St. Pauli 1.43

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.01.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.3 in total · 1. FC Magdeburg 4.7 · FC St. Pauli 4.7

55%Over 8.5@1.82

44%Over 9.5@2.25

35%Over 10.5@2.87

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.7

65%Over 3.5@1.54

49%Over 4.5@2.06

34%Over 5.5@2.96

⏱️ First half

46% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.38

75%Goal in the 1st half@1.34

40%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.49

80%Goal in the 2st half@1.24

⚽ Goals per team

47%1. FC Magdeburg +1.5@2.13

42%FC St. Pauli +1.5@2.39

18%1. FC Magdeburg to win to nil@5.64

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

3.19Expected goals (xG)1.20

6Shots on target3

2Saves2

3Offsides2

12Shots12

2Yellow cards3

3Corners7

0Red cards1

10Fouls16

51Possession %49

Goals in the last 10 matches

1. FC Magdeburg · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score3.6goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

FC St. Pauli · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score2.5goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

1. FC MagdeburgFC St. Pauli

2.2Goals scored per match1.1

1.6Goals conceded per match1.3

100%Matches with over 1.5 goals82%

67%Matches with over 2.5 goals36%

50%Both teams to score64%

42%Clean sheet27%

8%Matches without scoring18%

4.7Corners won per match5.1

2.1Yellow cards per match2.4

1. FC Magdeburg: 12 matches · FC St. Pauli: 11 matches (all competitions with data).

1. FC Magdeburg at home · FC St. Pauli away

1. FC Magdeburg at home

4G0E1P

WWWWL

FC St. Pauli away

0G5E1P

DDDDL

When do they score and concede?

1. FC Magdeburg · goals by minute in 12 matches scored conceded

FC St. Pauli · goals by minute in 11 matches scored conceded

The first goal

1. FC Magdeburg

Scores first in 8 of 12 matches and wins 6 of them.

Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 0.

FC St. Pauli

Scores first in 5 of 10 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 2.

Players in form

1. FC Magdeburg

Mateusz Zukowski · 4 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

E. Iyoha · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Felipe Chávez · 0 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

FC St. Pauli

Abdoulie Ceesay · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

L. Ritzka · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

M. Kaars · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

11. FC Magdeburg to win

1Draws

5FC St. Pauli to win

7 matches · 2.9 goals per match

Recent meetings
2024-02-10	1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 FC St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga
2023-08-27	FC St. Pauli 0-0 1. FC Magdeburg	2. Bundesliga
2023-02-18	1. FC Magdeburg 1-2 FC St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga
2022-08-14	FC St. Pauli 3-0 1. FC Magdeburg	2. Bundesliga
2021-08-07	1. FC Magdeburg 2-3 FC St. Pauli	DFB Pokal
2018-12-22	FC St. Pauli 4-1 1. FC Magdeburg	2. Bundesliga

Standings

2. Bundesliga standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Hertha BSC	11	+16	31
2	1. FC Nürnberg	11	+13	24
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	11	+3	21
4	1. FC Magdeburg	11	+11	20
5	VfL Wolfsburg	11	+10	19
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	+2	17
7	1. FC Heidenheim	11	-1	16
8	VfL Bochum	11	-2	14
9	FC St. Pauli	11	-3	12
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	11	-6	12
11	Hannover 96	11	-6	12
12	Energie Cottbus	11	-2	11
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	-2	11
14	VfL Osnabrück	11	-4	11
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	-5	11
16	Karlsruher SC	11	-9	11
17	SV Darmstadt 98	11	-12	9
18	Holstein Kiel	11	-3	8

More stats

Referee: Tom Bauer

4 matches · – yellows and – reds per match

Half-time

1. FC Magdeburg: 8 days since last match · FC St. Pauli: 7 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 15:00 UTC.